Opinion & Comment
Politica
Sharon's Big Mistake

Based on this past year's experience since the coalition was set up, to find out what Sharon is thinking and what he will do in the future, one should keep abreast of remarks made by Shinui Chairman Tommy Lapid. What he says, Sharon does a few weeks or months later.

In the lead headline of the latest edition of the Shinui newspaper, Lapid calls for the removal of the National Religious Party and HaIchud HaLeumi from the government due to their right-wing extremism which interferes with the advance of the political process, and their replacement by the Labor Party.

Thus it should come as no surprise if in another few weeks or months Sharon carries out Lapid's pronouncements despite the Prime Minister's frequent statements on the importance of preserving the current coalition. Sharon's repeated remarks that this is the best possible composition one could ask for during this period should have Effi Eitam, Zevulun Orlev and Avigdor Lieberman worried since they suggest that Sharon is set to send them to the opposition or force them to resign from the government and go to the opposition.

But Sharon is making a big mistake. He is apparently not sufficiently aware of how tightly these figures will cling to their ministerial posts. Based on the conduct of the right- wing parties, especially the NRP, neither forcibly evacuating settlements nor unilateral political moves will be enough to separate them from the government or from their Volvos. Sharon can go ahead and carry out his political plans without worrying about a shake-up in the coalition or having to bring in new parties or ministers.

Or perhaps Sharon knows exactly where his NRP partners stand and as such is proceeding quietly and deliberately toward political moves from the Left's school of thought, with no concern over disrupting his coalition or having to deal with major coalition crises -- just an occasional media-oriented coalition crisis.

Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom and Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz can rest assured. At the conference in Herzliya, Shalom voiced opposition to unilateral moves that would include removing settlements. Both Mofaz and Shalom are well aware that in the event Labor joins the coalition the Foreign Minister would be the first to pay the price, with the Defense Minister next in line. The Labor Party would not be content with the Housing and Welfare portfolios the NRP would vacate or the transportation and tourism portfolios HaIchud HaLeumi would vacate. They would demand the Foreign Ministry for Shimon Peres and perhaps the return of Ben Eliezer to the Defense Ministry, or else have Matan Vilnai or Amram Mitzna take over this portfolio.

But based on the NRP's conduct, Silvan Shalom needn't fret. Labor is not going to join and the NRP has no intentions of resigning under any circumstances.

Last week's vote on the transfer of the Rabbinate Botei Din to Tommy Lapid's Justice Ministry showed clearly the NRP is not going to budge, come what may. For the umpteenth time the NRP threatened to resign from the coalition if the transfer, which the Chief Rabbis strong opposed, was passed. Yet after the Prime Minister wagged his finger at the NRP, the party suddenly changed its tune and voted in favor of the bill. And what's more it even issued an exultant statement claiming the vote was a significant achievement since the NRP managed to slip a few clauses in here and there. A party that knows no shame.

Hirshenson Wants to be Minister

Knesset Finance Committee Chairman Avraham Hirshenson is one of the Likud's seasoned veterans, yet he didn't manage to secure a portfolio in Sharon's government. He was bypassed by newer and younger faces, primarily because they were higher on the Likud list.

While the coalition was being assembled his political patron, Ehud Olmert, was busy with his own problems, namely that the Finance Ministry, which he thought he had wrapped up, went to his rival Binyamin Netanyahu and Olmert had to be content with a smaller portfolio that included only the Ministries of Industry, Commerce, Labor and Communications, the Israel Lands Administration, the Broadcasting Authority and a few other tidbits.

Although it remains uncertain whether Sharon will be implicated along with his sons in the Greek island and Cyril Kern scandals, the political establishment senses that the moment of truth is drawing near. It could take a week, a month or even two months, but sooner or later a decision will be announced whether or not he will have to stand trial, and even if only his sons are indicted, it is unlikely the father could remain in his post as if nothing happened.

In the event Sharon is forced to step down, at least in the interim stage of the first few months, Ehud Olmert would take his place until a showdown is held for the Likud Party leadership, with Olmert facing off against Netanyahu and perhaps Silvan Shalom or Limor Livnat. (Mofaz cannot be Prime Minister during the current term because he is not a Knesset member.)

In this case the first person to gain would be Avraham Hirshenson, who would realize his dream of becoming a minister after so many years in the Knesset, since he would almost certainly be Olmert's first choice to fill his shoes.

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