Will the Mir Space Station fall on Japan?
According to plans by the Russian Space Agency, Mir is
supposed to make a guided descent into the Pacific Ocean
this week, thereby bringing operations of the aging space
station to an end. Most of the parts of the space station--
which weighs in at 135 tons--will burn up during its entry
into the earth's atmosphere, but another 1,500 parts,
weighing a total of 13-19 tons, are expected to survive the
entry and reach the ground.
Yuri Kotpav, director-general of the Russian space and
aviation agency, said during a press conference last week,
"There is a 98 percent chance that all will go well,"
adding, "but there is also a 2 percent chance that something
could go wrong in this unique operation, which is the first
of this scale and complexity ever performed." Kotpav was
referring to a scenario in which ground-control personnel
were to lose control over the space station.
Meanwhile the Japanese are very worried over that 2 percent.
In the event of a loss of control Japan, located near the
end of Mir's trajectory, could be hit by the falling space
station. (Israel, incidentally, is not located near Mir's
landing path.) "The slightest mistake in predicting the
trajectory of the falling parts of the space station--due to
unforeseen atmospheric conditions, for instance--could
significantly alter the crash site," Professor Yasunori
Matugava of the Japanese Institute for Space and Astronautic
Sciences told CNN. He said, "Even if everything goes
according to plan, it is impossible to determine exactly
where all of the remaining parts of the space station will
fall until just 30 minutes before they hit the ground."
Several previous attempts by Russia to bring the remains of
the space station back to earth have failed. Twenty years
ago a Soviet military satellite crashed down in a virtually
unpopulated region of Canada near the North Pole. Following
the crash Russia was forced to pay Canada $8 million in
compensation.
