Ariel Sharon recently passed two hard tests. First he
expanded his government thanks to the votes of two Arab MKs,
the six Meretz MKs and one MK who was booted from Shinui
(Yossi Paritzky), and then he managed to pass the state
budget in a first reading, with the votes of the Likud
"rebels."
The first success Sharon can attribute to himself and his
disengagement plan, which brought the far left in the Knesset
to back him.
But the second success was definitely not his doing. It
belonged to his great political rival within the Likud,
Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
Netanyahu put all his weight behind attempts to persuade the
rebels to support the budget. From the Finance Minister's
standpoint the budget is not just a test of Sharon and the
government but, first and foremost, a test for him to pass.
And he certainly did not intend to fail a second time.
Several of the Likud rebels are among Netanyahu's loyal
followers. MKs like Gilad Arden, Chaim Katz, Ehud Yatom, Ehud
Kra. The moment it became clear they would support the budget
the whole group gave in to prevent divisiveness. Furthermore,
this entire group realizes that one of these days Netanyahu
will be their leader. If they want to survive in the Likud
when the battle between Sharon and Netanyahu over the Likud
leadership comes to a head, they will have to choose sides,
and which side they will choose is clear.
The rebels' battle appears to be an ideological one, but it
is also "chairological." According to a Likud Committee
decision, only the first 25 spots on the list for the next
Knesset will be reserved for current Knesset members. The
remaining slots will go to new nominees from the various
areas. This means that 17 of the current 42 Likud MKs will
leave the Knesset.
Therefore the battle for the top 25 spots will be a hard and
bitter fight. Since ranking party members (most of the
ministers and a few dominant MKs) already have the top 15
spots locked up, only about 10 spots remain up for grabs.
Over these 10 spots a great battle will be waged between
rebels like Ratzon, Edelstein, Katz, Yatom, Arden and
Blumental, and MKs faithful to the Prime Minister such as
Baum, Aflalo, Hirshson, Omri Sharon, Magelli Vahava, Yaakov
Edri — and even Meir Shetreet and Ehud Olmert.
Despite their support for the budget, Sharon would prefer to
see them resign from the Likud and start an independent
party. This would also ensure they will not vie for the Likud
list in the next Knesset elections. Yet the rebels —
particularly Uzi Landau, who will have no problem getting
reelected, probably in a higher spot — have no
intention of granting him this pleasure. They see themselves
as the original Likud, the true Likud, and as far as they are
concerned Sharon can resign from the Likud and go his merry
way.
Sharon knows his preferences regarding the rebels will remain
but a dream. And since pleading with them week after week is
too degrading for him he has no choice other than to bring
Shas into the coalition. Eleven MKs versus thirteen. Sharon
is not fond of Shas, to put it mildly, but he is even less
fond of his rebels from within. And a politician always has
to know how to maneuver between his opponents.
Along with their desire to help Netanyahu this was also a
part of the rebels' decision to back the budget.
Shas wants to join the coalition and at the same time does
not want to join. It does not want to because it will be much
easier for it to go to the next elections from the
opposition. Remaining in the opposition would invigorate
field workers and contribute to the success the party is
anticipating. On the other hand the pleasures of power are
very alluring.
This Thursday, January 20th, the next phase of the cut in
Children's Allowances will take effect. Relatively little of
the Children's Allowances that large families once received
will remain. If Sharon honors Shas' main demand, Children's
Allowances, Shas will probably agree to join the coalition.
Perhaps some alternative will also be worked out.
