When an indictment was filed against David Appel recently
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon continued to act perfectly
nonchalant, seemingly oblivious to the fact it mentions him
by name, saying attempts were made to bribe him and that he
knew his son Gilad stood to gain a large amount of money. But
despite appearances, Sharon knows he cannot afford to be at
ease and is well aware he may soon have to leave the post
that is so dear to him.
Likud MKs and ministers dare not speak out against Sharon--in
fact they even defend him and voice their support--but off
the record most of them acknowledge Sharon is in real trouble
and will probably have to end his political career earlier
than planned.
The pressure on Sharon has just begun. In the Knesset the
affair is a major focus of attention and Sharon has been
exposed to heavy assaults from the opposition.
After the indictment was filed no other issue seemed to draw
any interest. Everyone instantly turned into Sharon and Likud
analysts and experts on the chances of Netanyahu, Olmert,
Shalom and other top Likud figures to inherit the throne.
Much depends on how events unfold in the near future and how
far the media goes. If the media decides Sharon's end is nigh
his chances of withstanding the pressure are nil. There is no
limit to the media's ability to inflame public opinion by
generating hostility and an image of corruption. Sharon would
have a hard time standing up to calls for him to resign.
The country has now entered a period of waiting. It could
take a week, a month or even six months until it becomes
clear whether Sharon will stay or go.
Yet ranking Likud figures are not waiting idly. They've
already started to rev their engines in anticipation of a
possible race for the Prime Minister's office.
The leading candidate is of course Netanyahu. Recent polls
show nobody else in the Likud, including Shaul Mofaz, comes
close to matching his popularity rating. Ehud Olmert is
himself involved in the indictment, Silvan Shalom and Limor
Livnat are still too green to vie for the top seat, and Shaul
Mofaz cannot serve as Prime Minister during the present term
because he is not an MK.
Ariel Sharon will be the one to set the rules of the game.
According to the current Government Foundation Law (unlike
the old Direct Elections Law), when a prime minister resigns
the Knesset does not resign with him automatically. Instead
the president directs one of its members to assemble a new
government. But the prime minister can also elect to disperse
the Knesset when he resigns. Sharon could very well choose to
make such a move in order to thwart Netanyahu's coronation as
his successor and to pave the way for Mofaz.
The country is not eager for elections. But Sharon, true to
style, would only consider his own benefit when deciding what
course of action to take. He would consult with his advisors
and listen, but in the end he would decide alone--or maybe
with Omri and Gilad.
Barak Discovers He's Not so Safe
High Court President Aharon Barak is accustomed to
unconditional backing and he invariably rejects any attack
against the High Court with contempt.
Generally criticism of the High Court has come from chareidi
representatives and the chareidi press. Occasionally they are
joined by figures representing vulnerable sectors harmed by
the court's rulings or right-wing leaders who don't see eye-
to-eye with the court on issues of nationalism.
Barak was never worried much by these critiques. He continued
to sit in his ivory tower without sensing that his throne was
slightly shaky. As long as the Left and the media backed him,
Barak was perfectly happy.
Then along came Knesset Chairman Reuven Rivlin with an attack
that caught Barak completely off guard for a very simple
reason: he never imagined it would happen. He thought he
could continue to do as he pleased with immunity from any
form of censure.
In his claims against the Knesset, says Rivlin, Barak "breaks
all the tools that could preserve the balance of interests
between the legislative branch and the judicial branch."
Rivlin also accused him of "de-legitimizing the Knesset's
critique of the court's decisions." Other powerful figures
including Knesset Constitutional Committee Chairman Michael
Eitan, House Committee Chairman Roni Bar-On and Coalition
Chairman Gidon Saar have also begun to censure Barak
openly.
Reuven Rivlin will have to watch his step. The Israeli
judicial establishment has many ways of handling those who
interfere or fail to do their bidding, as Yaakov Ne'eman can
attest. After he was appointed Justice Minister under
Netanyahu the judicial establishment lodged false -- and
really frivolous -- charges to have him removed from his
post. He was acquitted, but by then someone else was Justice
Minister.
Rivlin, beware.
