The political establishment has not been so bewildered and
unsure of itself and where it's headed for many years. The
confusion crosses party lines, but is primarily found on the
Left. Although elections were held just six months ago and
the coalition was formed just four months ago, the
possibility of new elections or a new coalition is already
hanging in the air.
Even during Ehud Barak's government, which set the record for
the shortest term ever, such calls were almost certainly not
heard at the four-month mark.
The political establishment and the entire public is waiting
to see how the government will fare and what will be the fate
of Ehud Olmert and Amir Peretz, the heads of the two leading
parties.
Everyone is eager to see how Olmert and his finance minister
Hirschson will overcome the budget crisis, whether he can
form another coalition if necessary, how the lessons of the
war in Lebanon will be learned and whether he will be able to
prevent the formation of a government investigating
committee. Will he be able to survive the State Comptroller's
investigations and other scandals that his name has been
linked to? What will become of Amir Peretz' leadership of the
Labor Party? Will he keep his post? Will Netanyahu succeed in
maintaining the dramatic improvement to his image and public
standing, avoiding the blunders that could prevent him from
returning to power? The questions and uncertainties
abound.
Last week Olmert announced the Convergence Plan has been
shelved for now, well after everyone else has long since had
the sense to abandon it. Olmert may also have come to the
same realization a while ago but lacked the courage to admit
his mistake. Still the announcement was substantial in
political terms since the plan Olmert was elected to carry
out has now reached its demise, at least for now, leaving
Olmert with no clear policy line and Kadima a body without a
soul.
Olmert knows he cannot go without a plan for long and the
entire political establishment is waiting to see what he will
hatch up. Or is a new policy plan the last thing Olmert can
come up with in his present situation? This is further
indication of just how fragile and uncertain the current
period is at the top ranks of national leadership.
Labor has the Key
The first and main key to all of the political uncertainty is
in the hands of the Labor Party, which is facing a period of
crisis even worse than the days of Ehud Barak and Amram
Mitzna.
Almost every Labor MK considers himself worthy of leading the
party in place of Amir Peretz and several of them have plans
to vie against him for the party chairmanship, in addition to
the possibility of outside candidates such as Ehud Barak.
Furthermore, with the exception of one or two MKs (who also
happen to be ministers) Peretz has no support base in his
party. Not that he used to have a broad support base, but as
party chairman he did have a certain impact. But today Labor
MKs are openly organizing against him and speaking out
against him on the record — further evidence the party
is in very bad shape or even on the brink of collapse. Some
surveys show Labor sinking to fewer than ten mandates.
Before Peretz tries to contend with internal threats that
will invariably affect the future of the coalition and the
government, the Labor Party will have to deal with the matter
of the 2007 budget. The budget is among the issues that could
cause the current coalition to dismantle, although generally
governments do not break apart over money matters. In the end
somebody gives in; in the worst-case scenario the budget
level is raised or lowered, depending on who gives in.
Peretz knows that in order to rehabilitate his image he will
have to steer back to social affairs, which is what
originally got him elected party chairman. His rivals will
probably also try to demonstrate their concern for social
affairs and the under classes.
One way or another Labor holds the key to the future of the
government and the coalition. If its ministers' will to
survive prevails and the party remains in the government,
Olmert will be able to hold out, too. But if the Labor Party
resigns anything could happen.
