The U.S. seems to be planning to move ahead with its Road Map
to peace in the Middle East whether Israel is ready or not.
Israel has asked for it to be put in hold until after its
elections, scheduled for January 28. Instead, the United
States wants to complete the draft and bring it to a Quartet
meeting -- composed of the United States, the United Nations,
the European Union and Russia -- on December 20.
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon wants to postpone handing over
Israel's formal response to the road map until after the
elections and the establishment of the new government, which
Sharon assumes he will head.
However the Americans made it clear that they understand the
constraints on Israel, but emphasized that President George
W. Bush wants to complete the road map in order to implement
the vision he espoused on June 24, and which Sharon has said
he supports in principle.
The administration said that if the final version is approved
by the Quartet next month, Israel will not be forced to take
the steps outlined in the map before the elections, but
rather the focus in the coming weeks will be on the
requirements of the Palestinian side, starting with the
cessation of terror and government and security reforms.
Palestinian elections are scheduled about a week before the
Israeli elections, but many observers have expressed strong
doubts that they will be held on time.
Last month, the road map draft was shown to all the parties,
including Sharon, the Palestinians, the Quartet, Jordan,
Egypt and Saudi Arabia and comments were solicited.
Military Intelligence Maj. Gen. Aharon Ze'evi has been
warning the Israeli political echelon that they cannot wait
until after the Israeli elections. Ze'evi warned that Israel
could find itself facing new facts if it does not take the
road map seriously right now.
Jewish leaders say that even the latest version diverges from
President Bush's June 24 speech in which he called for new
Palestinian leaders and said that a Palestinian state could
be created only after significant institutional reforms.
There was concern that the State Department, which is
considered more sympathetic to the Palestinians, is working
on the plan, rather than the White House. Key White House
figures are now focused on Iraq, so the State Department has
moved in to fill the vacuum.
The road map currently calls for a three-stage approach
leading to an interim Palestinian state in the West Bank and
Gaza Strip next year, and the creation of a permanent state
by the end of 2005.
In the first stage, the plan demands the appointment of a new
Palestinian Authority Cabinet and the creation of a prime
minister's post. It also demands that Israel improve
humanitarian conditions for Palestinians in the territories
and dismantle any settlement outposts created under the
Sharon government.
Later in the first stage, it requires the Palestinians to
write a constitution, and also calls for a monitoring system
led by the Quartet to ensure that the two sides meet their
commitments. It also calls on Israel to withdraw troops from
all areas occupied since start the Palestinian violence that
began in Sept. 2000 and to freeze all settlement activity,
including a freeze on natural growth construction, that will
be particularly strict in the Jerusalem area. The U.S. wants
the freeze to go into effect after a general cease-fire,
while the other members of the Quartet want to see it go into
effect immediately to spur a Palestinian cease-fire.
The second phase, which would run through the end of 2003,
begins with Palestinian elections in January and an
international conference to form a provisional Palestinian
state.
The third phase, due in 2004 and 2005, calls for a second
conference and negotiations toward a final peace
agreement.
Israel is concerned that the road map does not repeat Bush's
demand for a change in Palestinian leadership and does not
set standards that the Palestinians must meet before things
progress from stage to stage. Israel wants the steps to be
performance-based, not dictated by a timeline that runs
regardless of how the Palestinians honor their commitments,
as was the case under the Oslo peace accords.
Israel is also not happy that Quartet members, at least two
of whom have shown considerable bias towards the
Palestinians, will serve as monitors, playing a role that
until now has been filled by the United States alone.
The new version speaks of moving through the process with the
"consensus" opinion of the Quartet, essentially giving the
United States veto power, but Israel wants any monitoring to
be done solely by the United States.
Several analysts say that, unlike Bush's June 24 speech, the
road map allows Palestinian Authority chairman Yasser Arafat
to remain in power. In his speech, Bush also said that no
Palestinian state could be created until the Palestinian
leaders "engage in a sustained fight against the terrorists
and dismantle their infrastructure." Israel has complained
that the security steps the plan demands of the Palestinians
are too vague.
Martin Indyk, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, said that
postponing the release would be as much an act of
interference in Israeli politics as releasing it. He also
suggested that Sharon would not be hampered by the road
map.
Indyk said that, based on the fate of other peace plans
presented over the past two years, Sharon knows there is
little chance the road map will really be implemented.
One analyst speculated that the United States may be
insisting on releasing the document now to strengthen Arab
support for a potential attack by the US on Iraq.
"Introducing the document at such a sensitive juncture, very
little can be accomplished," he said. "It makes me wonder if
Arab states are seeking to insist upon the Quartet's passage
of the road map as a prerequisite for their acquiescence to
the American actions in Iraq."
Nothing in the plan indicates what will happen if war breaks
out in Iraq, but it is safe to assume that its implementation
will be slowed or halted if the US or the UN attacks Iraq.
This week Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's bureau director Dov
Weisglass, Finance Ministry Director-General Ohad Marani and
Ambassador to the US Danny Ayalon were in the US to meet with
US National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice and other top
officials for policy discussions. Among other issues, they
were expected to present a request for a large aid package,
including $2-4 billion in additional security assistance and
$8 billion in loan guarantees.
The assistance is tied to Israel's needs in the event of a US
strike on Iraq. Aid requests have also been made by US allies
including Jordan and Turkey.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Moshe Ya'alon was expected to
meet with Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz and
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Richard Myers, as well
as with Rice and Secretary of State Colin Powell.
