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12 Shevat 5763 - January 15, 2003 | Mordecai Plaut, director Published Weekly
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NEWS
Likud Support Rises in Latest Polls; Labor Falls
by Yated Ne'eman Staff and M Plaut

The wishful thinking of the politicians and the press proved short-lived, as the polls released on Monday showed the Likud rising sharply from its lows of late last week and beginning to "recover" its commanding lead. Labor lost all its minor gains and even fell lower.

After the media storm that broke out last week when someone illegally leaked word of an investigation into some of prime minister Sharon's financial dealings, the weekend polls showed a sharp drop in Likud support. In the new figures, compiled after Sharon spoke to the press in response to the reports and was cut off in mid-sentence, this has been reversed.

A Dahaf Institute poll published Monday predicted 32 to 33 seats for the Likud and only 20 for Labor. On Friday, the same company had forecast 28 for Likud and 21 to 22 for Labor. A New Wave poll had similar results, with Likud winning 32 seats compared to last week's 30, and Labor falling from 22 mandates to 20. Both polls had a 4.5 percent margin of error.

An internal Likud poll gave the party 33 to 34 seats, and Labor only 18 to 19. Labor said its internal polls give it significantly more support but agreed that the Likud's support rose.

As Evelyn Gordon wrote in the Jerusalem Post, "When a prime minister up for reelection is being investigated by the police, that is a matter of clear public interest. Thus the media's efforts to give the public as much information as possible about Sharon's $1.5 million loan from a South African friend are right and proper (government officials are forbidden to take foreign loans). What is not proper, however, is the smear campaign that has accompanied the news reports." She suggested that if Sharon's remarks were improper, the impartial thing to do would have been to let him finish and then grant Mitzna equal time to reply. It is interesting and important to hear Sharon's version of events.

Sharon's response to the story was that it was only an innocent loan from an old army buddy and that the whole story was illegally leaked by political rivals intent on "stealing" the election because the country's legal establishment and the media are out to get him. This analysis is probably not far from what large parts of the population suspected anyway and it was certainly reinforced when he was cut off by the head of the Central Elections Committee in mid-sentence.

Though the investigation is real and proper, since loans might indicate something illegal, the media have provided no scenario that suggests anything improper. Though they use the word "bribery" in their reports, they do not show any object of bribery. Sharon used the money as collateral for a bank loan meaning that he paid 3 percent on the private loan plus market rate on his loan from Israel Discount Bank. The result is that he paid 3 percent over the market rate for the money. That does not have the usual structure of a bribe.

Moreover, Cyril Kern, the South African businessman who made the loan, has no business interests in Israel. Not only is there no evidence that Sharon gave Kern anything in return for the loan, no one has even been able to point to anything that he could have given. The investigation was at such an early stage that it had no real information yet.

The new poll numbers have again put Labor on the defensive. For a week they were focused on attacking Sharon, but now they are back to trying to attack all sides at once. On Tuesday Labor leader Amram Mitzna reemphasized his earlier commitment not to sit in a unity government with Sharon. This tactic is designed to draw votes from Meretz and the Arab parties, both of whom are not candidates for any Sharon- led government.

This position has been somewhat problematic for Mitzna since it is well-known that many prominent Labor figures do favor a unity government. Meretz leader Yossi Sarid analyzed the Labor declaration publicly by explaining that since Mitzna is now competing mainly for Meretz votes instead the more centrist voters who vote Likud, it shows that he has given up on winning the election. Sarid also opined that Mitzna's declarations are "irrelevant" because the rest of the Labor leadership, primarily Ben-Eliezer but also Peres and Itzik, will push to join a unity government. Mitzna will "not be able to single-handedly resist the pressure," he predicted -- self-servingly since he hopes to capture the votes of those who favor not joining Sharon.

Another tactic Labor used when it tried to appeal to Likud voters was to criticize Sharon for not building the security fence faster. But this approach assumes that voters will feel more secure with Mitzna who has said he would unilaterally uproot Israeli settlements from the West Bank and Gaza Strip within a year if he can't strike a deal first with the Palestinians, and that he would talk with Arafat without preconditions.

"Labor's decision not to sit in national-unity government proves that Mitzna is disconnected from the nation that wants a national-unity government even today," Likud campaign manager Leor Horev said. "Labor fell in the polls because of its own arrogance. Its direct attacks against the prime minister had a boomerang effect. In the next two weeks, Labor will have to fight Shinui to avoid becoming the third-largest party."

Horev thought that the decision of the chairman of the Central Elections Committee, Supreme Court Justice Mishael Cheshin, to pull the plug on Sharon's press conference last Thursday also boosted the Likud in the polls.

The head of the Likud campaign, Jerusalem Mayor Ehud Olmert, speaking in the Likud's election messages on Monday night, criticized Cheshin's decision and Labor for its attacks on Sharon. The Likud message also showed ordinary citizens on the street decrying Cheshin for having the "chutzpah" to pull the plug on the prime minister.

Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat called publicly for terrorist groups to stop killing Israel civilians until after the elections. It is not clear if he was sincere or even if so, how much weight his call has. Arafat's ability and desire to control terrorism is a matter of debate. His own Fatah Party claimed responsibility for a Jan. 5 double suicide bombing in Tel Aviv that killed 23 people. This past Sunday, two more Israelis were killed in attacks, one civilian on a farming community in the Galil within the Green Line, and one soldier in the Negev near the Egyptian border.

At the weekly Cabinet session on Sunday, the Prime Minister said that for the PA Chairman, the murder of Israelis -- in addition to being a constant and permanent goal -- is a political consideration. "Before the elections, it is OK to commit murder. Close to the election date, it's better not to. After the elections, it's OK to continue. Here, we clearly see Yasser Arafat's true face, which is so well known to us."

Prime Minister Sharon added that such remarks underscore what Israel has maintained for the past two years: that Yasser Arafat has established, is responsible for and leads a coalition of terror, which he can leash or unleash and use as he pleases. The Prime Minister asserted that one cannot negotiate with such a man and added that any attempt to do so will only harm our ability to achieve security and peace in this land. All those who aspire to peace between peoples must understand that Yasser Arafat is an obstacle to peace who must leave the political stage.

Since taking office in March 2001, Sharon has refused all contact with Arafat and has convinced the Bush administration that Arafat must be replaced for Israeli-Palestinian peace to have a chance.

 

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