Since the two World Wars and the nuclear threat that
developed in their aftermath, the world has been in a
constant state of fear. Stockpiles of hundreds of missiles
armed with atomic warheads could cause an unprecedented
catastrophe in the event of a buildup of mutual tension
between powerful nations that possess the deadly weapons in
their arsenals. Governments claim they need to arm themselves
with these frightful weapons in order to maintain a "balance
of fear," yet nuclear countries manage to strike fear not
only in the hearts of their adversaries, but among the rest
of the planet's inhabitants -- and even their own citizens as
well.
Two recent incidents clearly demonstrate how, despite efforts
to minimize the nuclear menace, it continues to loom,
threatening to wipe out whole cities and countries within
minutes.
*
A month ago, the presidents of the United States and Russia
signed a new agreement to reduce their nuclear warheads by
two-thirds over the next ten years. This represents the
largest weapons-reduction agreement in human history, from
5,000-6,000 warheads to 1,700-2,200 per side. The document is
the most significant nuclear weapons dismantling pact ever
signed, at least in terms of quantity.
At the signing ceremony US President George W. Bush noted
that the agreement "puts an end to a longstanding conflict
and turns over a new leaf in relations between the two
nations." According to Bush the agreement brings the Cold War
"into the two countries' rearview mirror." His Russian
counterpart, Vladimir Putin, called the agreement "a major
step forward in guaranteeing international security."
According to analysts the pact signals a new direction by the
leaders of both superpowers, which had tens of thousands of
nuclear warheads aimed at one another just a decade and a
half ago. Although the reduction still leaves each with
enough nuclear weapons to destroy the entire world and to
annihilate every living creature several times over, the cup
should be seen as half full: the agreement to reduce the
quantity of nuclear weapons by two-thirds is considered a
step with wide-reaching psychological effects.
Reporters who covered the signing noted that despite the
friendly atmosphere and optimistic declarations, opposing
views were also part of the talks and declarations. Bush
called on Russia to stop supplying nuclear equipment, know-
how and technology to Iran and warned that the Iranians might
one day make use of nuclear devices and perhaps even direct
them against Russia.
Putin, whose body language showed he did not appreciate such
critical remarks, noted in his reply that Russia only
supplies Iran equipment designated for civilian purposes and
to advance peace.
But trickling nuclear technology to Iran is only one of the
problems hovering over the world in the area of
unconventional weapons. The greatest security threat the US
faces today is the possibility of terrorists stealing weapons
laden with plutonium or radioactive material--and Russia is
known to be the most available source of trade for this type
of stolen weaponry. While nuclear countries were always
restrained in the use of their weaponry by the threat of
counterstrikes, it is clear to everyone that the terrorists
have no such restraints and would definitely use any weapons
that come into their possession. The nuclear weapons
reduction agreement merely lessens the threat somewhat,
offering no assurances. The US is reluctant to rely on Russia
to refrain from passing on thousands of nuclear detonators to
anyone willing to pay the price.
Nevertheless the agreement is a step in the right direction,
for it represents a shift in consciousness toward the
recognition that the threat of mass destruction must be dealt
with and put behind us.
*
While Russia and the US were signing a nuclear-reductions
pact, a new peril began to loom from a different direction:
the India-Pakistan border. Both sides have nuclear weapons.
Though tensions their have lessened in recent weeks, the
Pentagon estimated at the time that if a nuclear conflict
does break out between the two sides, it would leave
approximately 12 million dead on both sides. In an interview
US Secretary of State Powell warned, "I think that the two
sides now recognize that it would be tragic if in 2002, for
the second time in history, a nuclear war transpires."
Fears mounted after India's leaders announced, "The Indian
nuclear weapons arsenal has been positioned for immediate
use." However Pakistan President Farbaz Musharaf reduced
tensions somewhat when he declared the possibility of using
nuclear weapons in the crisis with India inconceivable. "I
believe that neither of the two sides is irresponsible enough
to dare to go to an extreme." He called the possibility of
using nuclear weapons "insane."
India has made clear in the past that it would not be the
first to launch nuclear weapons, but until Musharaf's
announcement many feared Pakistan might be tempted to use
nuclear weapons in the event of an Indian ground attack in
Kashmir. Still, mutual suspicions could lead to a horrible
war, even due to an error or a simple misunderstanding.
Casting doubt on Musharaf's declaration, India's Minister of
Security Affairs Jugandra Nahrein said, "We will respond to
the use of nuclear weapons against us, and we must be
prepared for mutual annihilation."
The nuclear tensions between India and Pakistan demonstrate
that various agreements are of no avail. The world is caught
in a menacing vortex of unconventional weapons and does not
know how to extricate itself. Technological progress has led
to great advancements in the production of lethal weapons. To
hear the words "prepare for mutual destruction" Rachmono
litzlan in an official announcement is chilling.
*
This development brings to mind remarks made by the Chofetz
Chaim when the Treaty of Versailles was signed in 5679 (1919)
after the conclusion of the Great War: "Let us not delude
ourselves that this peace is viable and the world will return
to tranquility as in the days of yore. This is not to be.
Peace will not last for more than a few decades, because
until the arrival of Goel Tzedek the land will not rest and
will not be still."
Of course he foresaw the horrors of World War II far in
advance. Now, as well, when friendly agreements are being
signed between Russia and the US as part of a recent trend of
reducing the nuclear threat, a new peril is emerging from
India and Pakistan. The nations of the world still live by
the sword and the international tremors continue as new
military conflicts keep erupting in different corners of the
globe.
