In a speech that seems likely to set the framework for all
diplomatic activity in the Middle East, at least for the
short and intermediate term, President George W. Bush defined
the issues and discussed his view of the next few steps to be
taken in order to move beyond the current violence and
instability. The key point the US president made is that the
Palestinian people must find "new leaders, leaders not
compromised by terror."
The US president opened his speech discussing the scourge of
terror in the Middle East: "For too long the citizens of the
Middle East have lived in the midst of death and fear. The
hatred of a few holds the hopes of many hostage. The forces
of extremism and terror are attempting to kill progress and
peace by killing the innocent. And this casts a dark shadow
over an entire region. For the sake of all humanity, things
must change in the Middle East."
He soon summarized the main points of the entire speech by
saying, "My vision is two states living side by side in peace
and security. There is simply no way to achieve that peace
until all parties fight terror. Yet at this critical moment,
if all parties will break with the past and set out on a new
path, we can overcome the darkness with the light of
hope."
In his subsequent remarks, Bush called upon the Palestinian
people to set up a full range of governing institutions,
including a legislature with real power, a court system and
"a new constitutional framework and a working democracy for
the Palestinian people." He promised that the United States
would be actively involved and assured the Palestinians that
the European Union and Arab states, as well as the World Bank
and International Monetary Fund, are poised to help.
Bush called for "reforms in Palestinian finances, encouraging
transparency and independent auditing." He said that "the
United States, along with our partners in the developed
world, will increase our humanitarian assistance to relieve
Palestinian suffering."
Bush also referred to the general war on terror and the
presence of terror in the Middle East, singling out Iran and
Iraq for their support of terror, and calling upon Syria to
"choose the right side in the war on terror by closing
terrorist camps and expelling terrorist organizations." He
said that "Arab states will be expected to build closer ties
of diplomacy and commerce with Israel, leading to full
normalization of relations between Israel and the entire Arab
world."
Israel's obligations are to "withdraw fully to positions they
held prior to Sept. 28, 2000. And consistent with the
recommendations of the Mitchell Committee, Israeli settlement
activity in the occupied territories must stop." Bush noted
that he understands "the deep anger and anguish of the
Israeli people" but he also called upon Israelis to work
towards helping the Palestinian people to build a
flourishing, democratic state.
The Palestinian people have an understandable "deep anger and
despair" and they "deserve an open society and a thriving
economy."
Turning to the worldwide Moslem community, he said, "I have a
hope for the people of Muslim countries. Your commitments to
morality and learning and tolerance led to great historical
achievements. And those values are alive in the Islamic world
today. . . Prosperity and freedom and dignity are not just
American hopes or Western hopes; they are universal human
hopes. And even in the violence and turmoil of the Middle
East, America believes those hopes have the power to
transform lives and nations."
Analysis
Though many hailed the speech as a "victory" for Israel since
it echoed most of the points that have been made by Israeli
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon since he took office almost a
year-and-a-half ago, it is really nothing more than the
triumph of rationality. The notion that terrorism must cease
before civilized negotiations can take place -- because
terrorism attacks the most basic presuppositions of Western
civilization -- is perceived as the "Israeli side" only
because Israel accepts the basic premises of civilization and
Palestinian terrorists do not.
All of Israel's positions are essentially defensive and do
not require any capitulation from the Palestinian side: to
agree not to murder someone is not generally considered any
sort of concession. Even if Israel's demands were accepted,
no Palestinian demands were rejected.
Nonetheless, Mahmoud Zahar, a prominent Hamas leader in the
Gaza Strip, described Bush's speech as a restatement of
Sharon's attitudes. "We see the speech as Hebrew words that
were translated into English and spoken by Bush on behalf of
Sharon," Zahar said.
The newest element of the speech was the strong implication
that long-time Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat must be
replaced. Though he never mentioned him by name, Bush made it
clear he did not believe peace or statehood would be achieved
with Arafat.
Bush and other US officials have criticized Arafat in the
past but this is the first time there has been any suggestion
that he cannot lead the Palestinian people to peace.
US Secretary of State Colin Powell has often been described
as the "moderating" side, but in an interview after the
speech he went out of his way to associate himself with its
content. Powell said that on his last trip he told Arafat
that he must change, but that there has been no sign of this.
Powell said that he has been working with "his colleagues"
and with world leaders on this issue "nonstop."
It appeared that there is a widespread disaffection with
Yasser Arafat. The European Union, which is much more
identified with the Palestinian side than the US, seems to be
growing tired of Arafat as well. Russian President Putin also
called upon the Palestinians to stop terror on Monday. Even
from the Arab world there were no rousing declarations of
support. The generally muted reaction of the world to Bush's
strong remarks indicates a broad acceptance of their content,
even if few are willing to endorse them publicly.
For now, the policy means that Israel can continue in its
military efforts to diminish Palestinian terrorism. Troops
have taken positions in Palestinian cities that have been the
sources of terror attacks, trying to use unoccupied buildings
such as schools that have closed for the summer. Israel has
said clearly that it does not intend to assume political
control of the areas, but that it feels that it must maintain
a physical presence for an extended time in order to make
significant progress against the terror infrastructure.
Terror was most intense in areas that were completely
controlled by Arafat such as Jenin, Tulkarm and Nablus. It is
in these areas that action is needed to fully disrupt the
terrorists. Though the previous operation "Defensive Shield"
captured many weapons and hundreds of terrorists, it only
muted the terror but did not bring it down enough.
Sharon also announced on Monday that the IDF is planning
extensive operations in Gaza this time, to attack the Hamas
which was left pretty unscathed by previous efforts. Even
though Hamas has not been able to do that much in Gaza
because of the barriers that isolate the Arabs from Jewish
areas, the feeling of security that Hamas felt in Gaza
encouraged its terrorists in Yehuda and Shomron. On Monday
Israel managed to kill a senior Hamas terrorist in a rocket
attack.
Bush's speech was scheduled to be delivered last week but
suicide bombings and terrorist attacks that killed 33
Israelis, and Israel's military response, now called
"Operation Determined Path," forced him to postpone it.
Sharon's Office issued a statement saying, "Israel is a
country that desires peace. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has
said on numerous occasions that when there is a complete
cessation of terror, violence, and incitement and when the
Palestinian Authority enacts genuine reforms, including new
leadership at the top, such that a different Authority is
created, then it will be possible to discuss how to make
progress on the political track."
Officials in the Prime Minister's Office said Bush accepted
Israel's two primary demands: that there be a total cessation
of terrorism, and that the PA undergo a total reformation,
before any progress can be made. The officials pointed out
that Bush did not call for an immediate withdrawal, a return
to the 1967 borders, or a firm timetable.
American Jewish organizational leaders were relieved to hear
that the president's vision of a Palestinian state is
preconditioned on the eradication of terrorism and the
building of democratic institutions.
"I think it's a very powerful address, and puts the onus
where we always said it was, which is the inability of the
current [Palestinian] leadership," said Malcolm Hoenlein, the
executive vice chairman of the Conference of Presidents of
Major American Jewish Organizations.
