The IDF's General Staff has reached the conclusion that
Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat's stature is
dropping so quickly that there is no need for Israel to push
him out. They expect that a new leadership will soon form.
This analysis, following President George W. Bush's speech
calling for a new, different Palestinian leadership and the
opening of the IDF's Operation Determined Path, has been
presented to the politicians.
Arafat's prestige, the IDF says, has been so damaged that
there is no need for action on Israel's part to expel Arafat.
A senior military source said that Arafat will probably not
be able to prevent a new, pragmatic leadership from emerging,
which will lead the Palestinians to a compromise with
Israel.
Arafat fired Tawfik Tirawi, head of General Intelligence in
the West Bank, according to reports from Ramallah.
But Tirawi himself said he was not fired. "To my regret,
there are people at the top of the PA who do not refrain from
using any means, including spreading disinformation, and
because of them I had to give up my job," said Tirawi.
In the months leading up to the Bush speech, the defense
establishment pressed for Arafat's expulsion. Chief of Staff
Shaul Mofaz, who handed over his office to Moshe Ya'alon this
week, said many times that he was in favor of expulsion.
But now a different view is gaining the upper hand, coming
out of Military Intelligence, and Planning, that it would be
best to let the process take place on its own.
One source said that "The Arab states and European Union
supported the Bush speech. That means the world is behind
Bush's delegitimization of Arafat. With the chairman's power
dropping so precipitously, pushed by so many forces, it
wouldn't be right for us to expel him ourselves.
Israeli "tolerance" of Arafat is made easier by the IDF's
success at keeping the number of Israeli casualties low. So
far, that's been accomplished by the IDF presence in the
Palestinian cities and towns, which are mostly under curfew.
A wave of terror or a large attack could change the
situation.
The IDF says it is seeing cracks in Palestinian society and
its leadership since Operation Defensive Shield.
The Palestinian debate about reforms has become more serious,
especially after the Bush speech. Not untypically,
Newsweek this week quoting Abas Zaki, a member of the
Fatah executive and a long-time associate of Yasser Arafat's,
as saying that the PA chairman should resign, saying that
"when you lose, you must go."
A resident of Halhul, Zaki told the magazine that wherever
Arafat went he brought disaster, "corruption and
instability."
An American offensive against Saddam Hussein in Iraq, which
the IDF regards as inevitable, could further undermine the
power of many of the extremists in the Middle East and lead
to a political process.
The Arab world, says a senior source, "has moved from
supporting Arafat to protecting him. The Arab leaders will
try to protect his honor, to make sure his departure from the
political stage is done honorably." Israel, however, doubts
Arafat will accept a symbolic role.
The U.S. agrees. A senior American official recently told
Israelis that "we don't know how to turn Arafat into the
Queen Mother -- and neither do you."
Meanwhile, there is satisfaction in the defense establishment
with the course of Operation Determined Path. In less than
three weeks, 600 Palestinians, including 15 wanted men and
nearly a dozen who were planning suicide attacks, have been
arrested. The terror groups now have the problem of how to
equip a bomber, and how to smuggle him into Israel. For the
first time, there are more potential bombers than explosives.
Still, motivation for becoming a bomber has not declined at
all.
In recent weeks, some contacts have been made with local
authorities, like governors and mayors, and the Civil
Administration officials in the West Bank, mostly for problem
solving.
The government says Israel will not reestablish the IDF's
Civil Administration and take over such matters as running
the schools or hospitals.
