Dead End
The shocking murder of two young men near Tekoa last Tuesday
night and the boat load of powerful weapons intercepted near
the coast of Lebanon while en route to the Palestinians'
arsenal last week have led more and more politicians from
across the spectrum to realize that we are headed down a
dead-end street vis-a-vis the Palestinians.
The Palestinians, who rejected the generous proposals made
by former Prime Minister Ehud Barak at the Camp David
Conference last summer, cannot call off the Al Aksa
Intifadah without having secured more than they were offered
then. On the other hand Israel, and certainly the Sharon
government, cannot and will not give them even what was
offered at Camp David.
The Knesset's summer session opened last week, and upon
their arrival at the Knesset, MK's were received by a crowd
of demonstrators carrying signs that read, "We voted Sharon
and got Peres." Only a small band of demonstrators was
gathered, but Sharon may well find himself facing a much
larger number of demonstrators.
Sharon realizes that he is currently headed down a dead-end
street and that there is no partner on the Palestinian side.
Sharon also understands that the military option does not
offer a solution, and that terror cannot be eliminated
through military means, placing him in a real quagmire. He
is left with no military solution and no political solution.
All that remains for him to do is to tread water and try to
control the damage.
For now, Sharon is king of the opinion polls. He is leading
by significant margins in all of the parameters. The public
believes him and believes he can be trusted; he is perceived
as the right man for the job and the public would like to
see the unity government continue under his leadership. His
problem is that the more time goes by without a solution to
the security problem, the more his public image will
deteriorate.
Even former foreign minister Shlomo Ben Ami, as a Labor
Party head and one of the leading proponents of the
concessions to the Palestinians, said last week that he had
reached the conclusion that Arafat and the Palestinian
leadership are not partners in the Final Status Agreement.
According to Ben Ami, there is no chance of achieving a
final settlement under the current Palestinian leadership
(read: Arafat), and therefore all of the Israeli players
should do some rethinking.
Breathing Down His Neck
The current military and political paralysis could also
cause Sharon considerable damage in the political realm,
which even has him occupied during these troubled times.
Sharon knows that his great rival, former prime minister
Binyamin Netanyahu, is breathing down his neck.
Netanyahu will use all of his talent, including his talent
as a communicator, to take full advantage of any failure by
Sharon vis-a-vis the Palestinians, whether it be a military
failure, a political failure or both.
Last week the former prime minister said in media interviews
that the IDF should have gone into Chevron's Abu Sanina
neighborhood--from which shots were fired at Shalhevet Pas,
the infant who was killed by sniper shooting a few weeks
ago. A few days later the IDF penetrated into Beit Jalla,
where shots have been fired at the neighborhood of Gilo for
several months.
Sharon has no choice. When Netanyahu presents right-wing
positions that will help him within the Likud during the
primaries, Sharon must respond with right-wing measures of
his own. He cannot remain aloof, for later on this would
exact a high political price.
During a Likud Party meeting last week Sharon announced that
a date had not yet been set for the Likud Convention and
that he was willing to have the convention postponed for as
long as two years. No need to rush. Sharon would like to
defer the confrontation against Netanyahu for as long as
possible. A convention, including a census, voting and
decision-making on various issues, would inevitably involve
a confrontation between the two figures. There is no
escaping it. That's the way it works in politics.
However, although Sharon would like to postpone the
conference for as long as possible, his supporters,
particularly Uri Shani, need the convention to take place,
and the sooner the better. Inside the party as well, when
Sharon made his remarks, Shani and his supporters threw him
a sharp glance.
One of the outstanding issues is the negotiations Sharon has
been holding with the Center Party, which has five mandates,
over the possibility of it joining the Likud as a unit, with
five places secured for them on the next Knesset list. The
current Center Party is comprised of four former Likud
members: Mordechai, Maridor, Milo and Magen, and the fifth
is Nechama Ronen, formerly of Tzomet. Thus all of them are
right-wing faithfuls whose place is in the Likud. Such a
move, however, would require approval at the convention.
If a deal with the Center Party is finalized the move would
also include the addition of hundreds of their members to
the Likud Central Committee, which would become a combined
Committee for the two parties and for a joint convention.
This is exactly what Sharon wants. This is one of his
strategies for taking over the Central Committee which
chooses the Knesset list. Sharon wants to take part in the
selection process to ensure that his loyal supporters make
the list. The convention can also decide to cancel the
primaries for the selection of party chairman and prime
ministerial candidate. From Sharon's perspective this would
be preferable. At a convention under his control his chances
of defeating Netanyahu would be much greater than at the
primaries, with 100,000 more voters participating.
Whispers can be heard within Sharon's camp about the idea of
canceling the primaries, but no one dares to make such a
suggestion out loud, for such plans are still premature.
Until all of the necessary steps have been taken to
guarantee the complete success of such a revolutionary step,
Sharon's allies will not admit publicly that they are aiming
in that direction. They are worried that ultimately the
primaries will not be cancelled, and after nearly having
their right to vote taken away, hundreds of thousands of
Likud members will try to settle accounts with them.
Outspoken and Unafraid
High Court President Aharon Barak paid a visit to the
Knesset last week to participate in a one-day seminar to
mark the retirement of the Knesset's legal counsel, Tzvi
Inbar. Very rarely does Barak make appearances at the
Knesset, so such visits always attract a great deal of media
and public interest.
Barak chose to deliver a lecture on the topic of the
constitutional court (six months ago the Knesset approved a
bill to set up a constitutional court in its first reading),
voicing staunch opposition to the idea. Barak browbeat the
audience, describing what would happen if the bill goes into
effect with words like, " . . . a direct and tangible threat
to democracy."
The seminar was held in the Knesset auditorium with no more
than 20 MKs in attendance. The vast majority were known
supporters of Barak. It is understandable, therefore, why
there was only one MK who dared to challenge Barak's
remarks, and later lashed out against him with an extremely
harsh diatribe. In fact, it is difficult to remember the
last time someone made such acrimonious remarks against
about Mr. Barak. The antagonist was none other than Yigal
Bibi (Mafdal), who referred to the High Court president's
remarks as "chutzpah" and said that if he had spoken
like that elsewhere he would have been thrown out, adding,
"Barak came to stone the Knesset with words." It definitely
takes a lot of daring to speak in such terms about one of
the most powerful people--or perhaps even the most powerful--
in the State of Israel.
But Barak is daring, too. Last week the Zamir Committee
released a report stating that the High Court inadequately
reflects the Arab and new immigrant sectors. Yet in his
lecture Barak said the High Court reflects the entire
country, with judges who reflect the complexity and
pluralism of Israeli society. It would be interesting to ask
the High Court President which members of the court
represent the worldview and lifestyle of citizens from
development towns and neighborhoods in crisis. How many of
those seated on the court represent Israel's traditional
Jews? How many of them represent the new immigrant or Arab
sectors?
Barak says no political appointments are made in the High
Court. True enough. But there have been appointments based
on who belongs to the clique. Come one, come all, but come
only if you are from our circle--even if your qualifications
are no less stellar than a candidate who went to law school
with us. Two years ago Manof found that all of the High
Court judges at the time, without exception, were graduates
of the Faculty of Law at Hebrew University in Jerusalem who
studied there during the same years Barak was a student
there. Are there no other law schools in Israel, in Be'er
Sheva, Haifa or Tel Aviv for example? Yes, it is true, there
are no political appointments.
It would very interesting to see whether any of the 14 High
Court judges disagrees with Barak on the issue of the
proposed constitutional court. My bet is that there isn't a
single one. All of them agree with Barak that a
constitutional court would be disastrous for the High Court.
Then Barak will once again claim, without batting an eye,
that pluralism reigns at the High Court. But who represents
citizens who are in favor of setting up a constitutional
court?
