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The inclusion of the JNR group as Core Jews is eminently debatable, even if it has not been much debated. These are people who do not even feel Jewish, and who cannot be expected to vote Jewish or spend Jewish. Even in a survey with nothing at stake, they did not identify themselves as Jewish. Given the realities of American society of the 21st century, most are probably not more Jewish than many of those who do identify with another religion. Perhaps they represent some sort of potential, but as such they are not a very healthy part of the Jewish people. Those concerned about the preservation of the Jewish people or Judaism could take comfort that these were only 20 percent of the Core in 1990.

However, in the context of demographic shifts which are usually like a glacier shifting course, this proportion has shifted at a pace more reminiscent of a flood. In 2001 this segment of American Jewry represented 32 percent of the total -- virtually a third! This alone is stunning. What is more, the shift came in the younger age groups.

This is of much more significance for long-term Jewish survival than the definitions of the intermarriage rate which figure so prominently in public discussions. The statistics of the rate of intermarriage among American Jews are not at all in doubt. They are very high and rose "only" slightly in the decade since NJPS1990. The dispute is just about whether those who write headlines in newspapers should write 43 percent or 54 percent as the rate.

Who cares? The devastating long-term effects on the Jewish people are the same in either case and there is no basis for comfort or complacency about intermarriage even if the rate is 43 percent and not over 50 percent. A person who marries out is thereby making a statement about his or her lack of concern for the future of the Jewish people -- as does someone who chooses not to have children even though having a Jewish spouse.

Of course, he or she may make other statements showing positive concern. Many people make statements in different contexts that contradict their words or deeds in other contexts and in general one does not undo the other. They deserve credit for whatever concern they show, but that does not erase their lack of concern in other, critical areas.

All numbers are interesting to someone interested in demographics, and they often yield valuable insights. However, what I think most people should focus on is what I have called the Hard Core Jewish Population in America. (See my article, "How Many American Jews Are There? 5,300,000? 2,300,000?" in the Jewish Observer, November, 20002, or here )

Based on the AJIS results, I calculated the Hard Core Jewish Population at 2,320,618 in 2000. It is the sad fact that this is all that is left in America that unequivocally identifies with the Jewish people and is fully committed to it. (This of course does not depend on level of religious observance.) These are the only people that would with certainty be identified as Jews by our forefathers of any generation.

I do not argue -- and I do not believe -- that this is the only important number. The other numbers are also worthwhile to track. I just argue that this number should also be tracked even though it has been ignored up until now.

Applying the concept of the Hard Core of American Jewry to the NJPS1990 data we find that then there were 2,830,238 Hardcore Jews. This means that this group declined a steep 18 percent in a decade. This should shock anyone concerned about the future of American Jewry, but I believe that it most accurately reflects the real state of affairs.

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