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A Realistic Prediction about the Upcoming Elections
by R' Yitzchok Roth
New elections will take place in another 10 days. According to all predictions, on the following day, the relation of strengths between the political blocs will remain the same. The Rightist-Chareidi bloc will not be able to establish a new government, similarly with the Leftist-Lieberman block.
The one who will be able to tip the balance will be the "United List" (Reshima Meshutefet), which, even if it does not join the government, will be able to thwart Gantz from forming a government. According to present declarations, this Arab List will not vote for a government which includes Lieberman, nor will Lieberman give his vote for a government leaning upon the Arab politicians.
What is true today, and only today, is the plausible chance that all of those declarations will be buried when it becomes clear that we would have to make a fourth round of elections. Lieberman will find an excuse to renege upon his promise to join a narrow government, and the Arab List will agree to abstain from voting against it. Benny Gantz will establish a narrow government, even if only for an interim period, in order to oust Netanyahu from heading the government and in the hope that this will also eject him from the Likud so as to bring an end to his era. Afterwards, he will be ready for an additional round of elections, this time without the Netanyahu threat.
Is this an imaginary scenario? Seemingly, it is more realistic that the possibility of another round of elections. This threat hovers in the air, and if the public voting for the Right will not make a comeback in voting in numbers, he will find himself against a government leaning upon Arab politicians, and all that will be left for him will be to protest and shout.
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