Israel's political establishment was not breathlessly
awaiting the results of this week's Likud primaries. In the
end Binyamin Netanyahu was elected chairman, but it would
have made little difference if Silvan Shalom had won: the
Likud will remain the same Likud.
What really matters is taking place behind the scenes in both
the Likud and Labor Parties where attempts are being made to
set up an alternative to Sharon, a government that would
serve until the original election date in another 11 months.
From a legal standpoint there is no problem making such a
move in the next week.
At first the idea may seem a bit unrealistic. The election
train has already pulled out of the station and nothing can
stop it. But in politics special interests reign supreme. As
soon as interests come into play anything could happen. Even
the most unlikely alliance can form between parties that
share absolutely nothing in common other than mutual hatred
and the will to survive. And this can even stop a bullet
train.
Although recent opinion surveys showed Kadima's momentum has
begun to subside, it still remains the leading party. The
Likud, Shinui, NRP, HaIchud HaLeumi, Yisrael Beiteinu and
even Meretz are trying to figure our how to stop Sharon and
Kadima. Or maybe they are just jealous. Sharon is thrashing
all of them in the polls and they would be willing to go to
great lengths to alter the present situation. Many of the
current MKs know that they will be out of a job after the
elections.
One possibility is to set up an alternative government in
order to send Sharon to the opposition and dry him up there
over the course of almost a whole year. This would deliver a
severe blow to him and his new party. Sharon and his
supporters know such a move could wipe them out politically,
turning Kadima into another Center Party with 4-6
mandates.
It all comes down to the opinion polls. If Labor continues to
flounder around the 20-mandate mark and Kadima continues to
lead with 35-40 mandates this option will start to go
forward.
Kadima's sweeping success does not bode well for the chareidi
sector either. After the elections a very dangerous coalition
could form, leading to decrees that would make today's
situation pale in comparison.
The chareidi public would have nothing to lose and could gain
if an alternative government took over for a year, bringing
the political establishment back to its senses and restoring
the tradition of one bloc against another with the chareidi
parties in the middle, maneuvering among the different
blocs.
Generals Cross the Lines
Just one day after touring the shuk in Tel Aviv to
promote his campaign for the Likud primaries, and half a day
after dispatching 130,000 letters asking Likud voters for
their support, Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz crossed the lines
and moved to Kadima, the rival party.
Although anything goes in Israeli politics, a figure serving
in such a high office and hoping to head the national
government is expected to act with a bit more moderation. By
the time Likud voters received the letters from Mofaz they
were already meaningless—except for what they tell us
about the man and what he is made of.
Knesset Chairman Reuven Rivlin, a seasoned Likudnik, said the
Likud Party rolled out the red carpet for Mofaz, but now he
is going to learn what politics is all about. And he's
right.
Sharon did not want Mofaz in Kadima now. Mofaz begged and
pleaded. He sent messengers and called on the phone. But
Sharon did not want to hear from him. He was upset with his
defense minister for not joining him from the start and even
more annoyed by the projectiles he had been firing over the
course of three weeks as part of his campaign to win the
Likud chairmanship. Mofaz accused Sharon of becoming a
Leftist and an Oslo man. Sharon felt betrayed and when Sharon
feels betrayed the alleged betrayer better keep his
distance.
But then Mofaz picked up the phone and sent his old friend
Dov Weisglass, who told Sharon he should settle accounts with
Mofaz at a later time and for the time being concentrate on
settling accounts with the Likud and dismantle it from the
inside, grinding it into little pieces until Netanyahu is
left with only Feiglin.
Sharon realized right away that Weisglass was right and gave
a green light to bring in Mofaz, even at the cost of a
promise to keep him in the Defense Ministry when he sets up
the next government. But if somebody thinks Sharon is really
committed to Mofaz he may be in for a surprise. Sharon
subscribes to the notion made famous by former Prime Minister
Shamir: "I may have promised, but I didn't promise to keep my
promise." And Sharon knows how to renege on promises without
batting an eyelid.
Mofaz would be well advised to prepare himself for the
possibility of seeing the defense portfolio offered to
someone else. He will then have a choice between joining the
government in a lesser post or going to Reuven Rivlin and
asking him for some lessons on how to cope with real-life
politics. And Rivlin, by the way, has the benefit of
experience.
