Palestinian violence is reduced — but still way above
zero — as all the parties wait to see developments in
the wake of the death of Yasser Arafat. Press reports say
that Hamas hopes to assume a significant political role in
the new power structure.
If Hamas does move to become a part of the institutions of
Palestinian government, it would mark a shift in its founding
principles which teach explicitly that the only method to
reach Palestinian goals is violence.
Other groups such as Islamic Jihad and Aksa Martyrs Brigades
have less formal commitments. Leaders of those groups
reportedly said on Monday that they would cease attacks in
Israel for 60 days in order to help facilitate elections for
Palestinian Authority chairman, slated for January 9. They
would continue attacks in the territories.
On Sunday evening there was a shoot-out at the official Gaza
Strip mourning tent for Yasser Arafat which left two dead,
including a bodyguard of the new PLO Secretary-General
Mahmoud Abbas.
The reports of the incident were confused. Some said it was
an assassination attempt on Abbas, while Abbas himself said
it was not. Many analysts took it as a sign of the
lawlessness that has prevailed in the past months, as Arafat
did not move to keep law and order, and did not let anyone
else do so either. Some observers warn that the tremendous
amount of weapons and their wide distribution among the
Palestinians make it likely that violence will flare up as
various groups jockey for power.
Islamic Jihad and the Aksa Martyrs Brigades said they would
continue fighting the IDF within the West Bank and Gaza
Strip, but not across the Green Line. Both groups consider
soldiers and civilian settlers to be legitimate targets, in
defiance of international law that considers attacks on
civilians to be a war crime.
Hamas will not join the Fatah-led cease-fire.
Some Palestinian analysts wondered whether the groups, almost
totally decentralized after IDF efforts to stop them, would
be able to coordinate any policy of restraint.
Hamas and Islamic Jihad announced that they will not run
candidates for PA chairman leaving Abbas as the favorite, and
perhaps unopposed. Some Palestinians said Al Aksa brigades
founder Marwan Barghouti is best to run the PA. Barghouti is
serving five consecutive life sentences in an Israeli prison
after being convicted of murder, and it is unlikely that
Israel will release him.
The Israeli defense establishment believes that Palestinians
under Iranian influence might try to assassinate Mahmoud
Abbas, the new head of the PLO, in the near future.
Abbas has opposed terrorism and the anarchy in the
territories ever since the intifadah began in September 2000,
and he tried to implement this approach during his half-year
stint as Palestinian prime minister under Yasser Arafat in
2003. Abbas is said to want to arrange a new cease-fire, and
if he is elected as the Palestinian Authority's new chairman
this January he is also expected to strive for some kind of
agreement with Israel.
Iran, Syria and Hizbullah, however, are vehemently opposed to
even a temporary Palestinian reconciliation with Israel, and
they are pressing terrorist organizations step up attacks
against Israel. The Israel Defense Forces are bracing for a
spate of such attacks in the coming days, after the Id al-
Fitr holiday.
Meanwhile, after the Knesset Finance Committee authorized
payments for settlers evacuated under the disengagement plan,
Disengagement Administration head Yonatan Bassi announced
that settlers can already apply to the government to receive
advance payments for resettlement.
Bassi said that a third to a fourth of the estimated 10,000
settlers to be evacuated have already contacted SELA, the
Hebrew acronym of the Disengagement Administration, for
details involving evacuation. He thinks that another half
will establish contact only when the compensation law is
finally approved by the Knesset. That would leave about 2-
3,000 hard core who refuse to evacuate.
The Prime Minister's Office launched an electronic media site
providing all necessary information for settlers who are
interested in evacuation.
About the level of payments, the Jerusalem Post quoted
Bassi as explaining, "It is clear that the payments are much
less than those which were given during the evacuation of
settlers from Sinai, and if that is the reference, obviously
some people will be disappointed. However, the Sinai payments
were paid by the United States, whereas here they would be
paid by the [Israeli] government."
