According to a recent opinion survey, were Sharon and his
loyal followers to resign from the Likud and run for election
as a separate party, they would receive a whopping 44
mandates while under Netanyahu the Likud would receive just
21 mandates.
Assuming this survey is accurate wouldn't Sharon disband the
Knesset right away and hold new elections within 90 days to
secure these 44 mandates? Even if it meant postponing the
disengagement by a month or two surely it would be worth his
while to rid himself the Likud rebels once and for all, shed
himself of Netanyahu and advance the disengagement plan and
similar plans he must be devising. So why doesn't Sharon just
announce early elections?
Because he knows this survey, which carried banner headlines
in the mainstream dailies, is unreliable. Its singular aim:
to threaten the Likud rebels and pressure them to support the
state budget.
The survey results were illogical, for they imply hardly any
parties exist besides the one Sharon heads. Labor, Meretz and
Shinui vanish. In all of the surveys the religious and
chareidi parties command 27-30 mandates or more. At least
eight seats go to the Arabs. Lieberman plans to run as the
head of an immigrants' party and he can be expected to
receive something. In other words only about 15 votes remain
for Labor, Shinui and Meretz combined. Now come on, really.
Sharon is under a great deal of pressure. He has just over a
week left to get the state budget passed in second and third
readings or else his government falls and mandatory elections
are held, which would deliver a fatal blow to the
disengagement plan he has been pushing for the past year and
a half. Not to mention the humiliation and the rejoicing
among his enemies within the Likud Party, which might be the
most painful of all.
The deadline is looming near. The Finance Committee will need
at least two days of voting to complete approval of the
budget, followed by three days of meetings and votes in the
plenum. Purim and Taanis Esther fall right in the middle. The
opposition will invariably try to filibuster. In other words,
Sharon has very little time on his hands.
This is why he and his supporters have begun firing in every
direction—threatening the rebels, pressuring Shinui, leaking
ridiculous surveys to the press and using every trick in the
book to squeeze water from a rock.
Further evidence the abovementioned survey is merely a big
bubble intended to put a scare in various political figures
can be found in a published statement by one of the Prime
Minister's close associates, who said if early elections were
held the Likud would fall apart, winning a mere 25 mandates.
So which is it: 44 mandates or 25 mandates? Either Sharon's
popularity is at its peak or the disengagement plan is in
such bad shape it threatens to topple the Likud, taking party
leaders down with it.
The explanation behind both the survey and the ominous
statement is simple. Sharon is up against the wall. He is
feeling so pressured that his supporters are constantly
disseminating various canards to secure a majority in support
of the budget.
The Pandering Press
Not for a long time has any man been worshiped so
universally by the press as Ariel Sharon. Even after the Oslo
Accords Yitzhak Rabin did not receive such broad immunity.
No criticism, no comments, no reproof. As if everything in
the country is going just fine and dandy.
In any properly-run state if thousands of employees at
official institutions had not received their salaries for
months the media would raise such a din day after day that
the leaders of that country would have no choice other than
to put a halt to the farce immediately. But in the State of
Israel no matter what happens the media will continue to
grant Sharon full immunity, for on the eve of the realization
of the grand dream of evacuating settlements, a victory of
the Left over the Right, he is untouchable.
According to the assessments of veteran Knesset observers, the
budget will receive approval at the last minute with the help
of at least a portion of the rebels, Shinui and of course
Meretz and the Arabs, because on this issue, unlike many
other issues, Sharon and Netanyahu are working together. And
when they cooperate and Shimon Peres and the Labor Party give
their support and apply pressure where necessary, the
political establishment will eventually surrender. They are
the strongest forces in today's political arena and nobody
can stand in their way.
