PM Ariel Sharon returned from the summery Sharm e-Sheikh
summit feeling satisfied with the results, but he was well
aware of the problems awaiting him back home where the
political state is extremely fragile though, according to
appearances, there has been only smooth sailing for the new
coalition since it was set up.
The central issue is the demand to hold a referendum on the
disengagement plan. The first shot on the referendum issue
was fired by Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom when he announced
he would head a campaign to promote the referendum idea.
Several months ago, before Labor joined the government, just
moments before the plenum vote on the disengagement plan,
Netanyahu, Livnat, Katz and Naveh announced they were
demanding a referendum and issued Sharon an ultimatum. Silvan
Shalom, who participated throughout the day, decided at the
last minute to back the Prime Minister and the disengagement
plan unconditionally.
At the time all of the political pundits praised Shalom's
conduct, saying it was sure to earn him the foreign affairs
portfolio even if Labor joined the government, which was
exactly what happened. Shalom had proven his loyalty to
Sharon, they noted, and Sharon would have to repay him.
But Shalom's recent move to demand a referendum shows his
loyalty is faltering. Perhaps he had reservations about the
disengagement from the start. Perhaps he has grave concerns
of a civil war. Or perhaps he really does believe there is an
obligation to hold a referendum on such a fateful issue.
Yet is remains hard to escape the sense his main motive is
political, not ideological. Not that Shalom is not an
ideologist, but in this case it seems politics is the
overriding factor.
An event like the Sharm Summit is every politician's dream.
The summit was broadcast live for hours. The whole world was
watching the conference, where broad promises and commitments
were made to fight against terrorism. And terrorism has the
world gripped in fear today.
Shalom wanted to come, but Sharon decided to leave him
behind. He had to stay in Israel and watch with envy how the
Egyptian President brought his Foreign Minister, how the
Jordanian King brought his Foreign Minister, how even Abu
Mazen brought the Foreign Minister of the Palestinian
Authority. Only the Foreign Minister of Israel had to stay
home.
There is an open rivalry between Shalom and Dov Weissglass,
former director of the Prime Minister's Office and currently
Advisor to the Prime Minister. Weissglass was the primary
figure behind the Sharm Summit. He spent days planning the
summit down to the last detail. He was also the one who
reached the preliminary behind-the-scenes agreements. He
worked with the Egyptians and the Jordanians, and of course
did not forget to update the Americans. Sharon opted to take
Weissglass over Shalom.
Sharon had another dilemma. If he had taken the Foreign
Minister along he would get tangled up with Shimon Peres, who
would have been insulted that as the number-two man in the
government and as a veteran policy maker he was left behind.
And if Peres had come along, then as deputy prime minister
Ehud Olmert would have wanted to join the bandwagon, too.
Instead of having three ministers tagging along Sharon
decided to leave them all behind.
Of course Silvan Shalom is not interested in Sharon's
calculations. Now he intends to prove to Sharon that he knows
a thing or two about politics himself.
No Majority for Referendum
One of the mainstream newspapers published a fascinating
survey of the Likud Center showing that its 20 most popular
MKs include many of the Likud Rebels such as Landau, Ratzon,
Arden, Gorolovsky and Saar.
These popular rebels submitted 750 signatures—as
required by party regulations—to Likud Center Chairman
Tzachi Hanegbi, demanding that the Center be convened to
reach a decision on the referendum issue. Although the
supporters must be operating under the assumption a majority
of the Center would vote in favor, in the Knesset a majority
of 61 MKs are against a referendum.
Furthermore a decision to hold a referendum would lead to the
dissolution of the coalition since Labor has made clear it
would see such a move as an attempt to thwart the
disengagement plan. Sharon certainly does not want to see
Labor resign, therefore at present the chances of a decision
in favor of holding a referendum are very slim.
But Sharon is anticipating a tough battle on this issue, for
even if nothing comes of a Likud Center decision in favor of
referendum—if such a decision is indeed
reached—still he would much prefer to spare himself
another loss and disgrace in his own party.
In addition Sharon has to contend with the Likud Rebels, who
are threatening not to support the budget in second and third
readings if a referendum is not held.
