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3 Elul 5765 - September 7, 2005 | Mordecai Plaut, director Published Weekly
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Opinion & Comment
Politica: The Agreement That Wasn't

By E. Rauchberger

Two weeks from now the Likud Center will convene and in all probability will decide to advance the party primaries to sometime in Cheshvan — or Kislev at the latest. Sharon has already announced that he considers this an unambiguous attempt to depose a prime minister by his own party—and he's right. In fact his opponents are even acknowledging it outright.

Recently Sharon summoned ministers and the Likud MKs who have not sided with Netanyahu openly, asking them to use their connections in the Likud Center to prevent such an unprecedented occurrence, but really the current situation is not unprecedented. Likud prime ministers have often been contested by usurpers from within the party. Sharon himself challenged Shamir while the latter was still in the Prime Minister's office. David Levy did the same and Netanyahu vied against Sharon in the Likud primaries three years ago, only then Sharon was not so outspoken for a very simple reason: back then Sharon was leading the polls.

Likud figures say that none of Sharon's arguments will help, and if nothing unexpected comes up Likud voters will choose Netanyahu whether the primaries take place at the beginning of winter, the middle or even the end.

Well aware of where he stands in the Likud, Sharon is carefully assessing possible alternatives. Sharon's main hope is to remain in office until the end of the current term in November 2006, the original election date, so he can go out with his head held high rather than getting booted from his positions as party chairman and prime minister.

Recently both Sharon and Olmert brought the battle against Netanyahu down to the personal level, vying to see who could lash out against him harder. Not criticism of his policy or descriptions of how the Likud would look under his leadership, or how many mandates the Likud stands to lose under Netanyahu, but rather attacks on his character. By attacking Netanyahu both men closed the door to receiving any appointments should he win.

There was also talk of reaching an agreement in which Netanyahu would help block the move to advance the primaries, allowing Sharon to complete his term with dignity and then hand the party leadership to Netanyahu on a silver platter. But Netanyahu would be unlikely to adopt such an idea because he wants to take over the Likud Party as soon as possible and because he doesn't trust Sharon to step aside and go back to his sheep at Sycamore Ranch. It wouldn't be Sharon's first time at reneging on a commitment. After all he was the one who said Netzarim and Tel Aviv are one and the same. Remember?

Barak Steps Aside Gracefully to Make Room for . . . Barak

Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak managed to turn the media spotlight from the Likud to the flailing Labor Party with his surprise announcement he is willing to pass up the party chairmanship for the sake of Shimon Peres and his call to all of the other contenders to stand behind Peres.

The carefully rehearsed move was designed to serve none other than Ehud Barak who, like every other politician, is looking out for number one.

Barak is well aware that not a single survey predicts that he would win or even advance to the second round. His decision to return to the political arena and vie for the Labor Party chair and the prime minister's office, which he left in shame four years ago, stems primarily from the example Netanyahu set through his comeback. "If Bibi can do it, so can I," Barak told himself. He is driven by a combination of envy, an inflated self-image and a strong desire to prove the country was wrong and he was right.

To drop out of the race would not be a very respectable thing for a dignified candidate to do and Barak certainly thinks of himself as a dignified candidate. To see it through to the bitter end and face defeat is also not a viable option since that would be his political undoing. Not everyone is a Shimon Peres who can lose time after time and still land on his feet.

But by stepping aside Barak has everything to gain. Rather than fleeing from the campaign the move is perceived as a gracious gesture to unite the divided party around the elder statesman. Barak slipped away at the last moment with minimal damage to his reputation, creating an image of a man concerned for the fate of his party during hard times.

Most of all Barak has not forgotten that Shimon Peres is now 82 years old. Barak's best option is to make Peres the head of the Labor Party, even if he becomes prime minister for three or four years. In the meantime Barak will get himself elected to the Knesset and might even receive a ministerial post. His plan is to bide his time, strengthen his hold within the party, build his popularity and win back the public's faith.

Just like Netanyahu.


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