When the media plastered the Likud with corruption charges
before the last Knesset elections, Sharon convened a special
government meeting, announcing that the government would pass
a law requiring the major parties to hold primaries to select
their Knesset lists and authorizing Meir Shetreet to draft
the law. (Like many other pledges the proposal was never
brought before the Knesset; in fact, when a similar law was
proposed the Likud MKs mobilized to defeat it — fearing
the wrath of the Likud Center, of course.)
But recently when Sharon was dragged into the Knesset plenum
to participate in a discussion on government corruption
— thanks to a law requiring his presence if at least 40
MKs demand it — his approach was very different. During
the previous swathe of corruption charges Sharon agreed to
initiate a law to prevent such corruption in the future while
this time he opted to rebuff the criticism against him and
his party.
Sharon claimed the allegations of party corruption were
"malicious, deceitful, empty, irrelevant, based on political
motivations, degrading, slanderous and a double standard."
The very different approach Sharon adopted this time around
is probably based on the well-honed political senses of
Israel's most experienced politician, who can already catch
the smell of early elections in the air. And if early
elections are called, before he defends his throne against
Labor first he will have to vie within the Likud for the
right to represent the party in the elections.
Last time when criticism of party corruption was lodged,
Sharon had already passed the first hurdle. All that stood
between him and victory was the general elections. Therefore
he decided to sacrifice the Likud head on the altar of media
criticism by obliquely admitting to corruption in the
selection of the Likud's Knesset list in order to win the
media's favor and through it the nation's favor.
In the present case Sharon still has to overcome the Likud
hurdle. He cannot admit to party corruption and then expect
the party to select him as their leader. Sharon was speaking
from the Knesset podium but his remarks were really aimed at
the Likud Center and Likud voters.
Furthermore, the last time around Sharon did not have at his
side an Attorney General like Mani Mazuz, who rescued him
from the Greek Island Affair by the skin of his teeth. Last
time Sharon had to appeal to the media, that sublime entity
with the power to crown prime ministers in the State of
Israel.
Though the Greek Island Affair is behind him he still has the
Cyril Kern Affair to overcome, but surely this hurdle can be
surmounted as well. Isn't that what the Attorney General is
for?
Likely Election Date
Even less seasoned politicians have caught the smell of early
elections wafting in the air for a simple reason: the smell
is almost unmistakable. For over a year Sharon has lacked a
stable coalition in the Knesset, ever since he announced the
disengagement plan. Neither did swapping Shinui and the NRP
for Labor and UTJ help matters much. Besides the
disengagement plan and all of its appendages Sharon has not
been able to get anything passed in the Knesset. Clearly this
situation cannot continue for long.
Sharon faced four no-confidence motions in the past two
weeks, was unable to get new ministers appointed and failed
to transfer authority from one minister to another within the
government. This is no way to run a country.
In the political ranks there is a general consensus that the
day after the disengagement plan is finished the major
parties will begin serious talks about scheduling early
elections.
The disengagement plan will begin in the middle of Av and end
in the middle of Elul. Then come the holidays and the Knesset
will reconvene right after Simchas Torah. Then the real talks
about a date for the next elections will get underway. The
most probable possibilities are sometime during Shevat or the
beginning of Adar or else after Pesach in the second half of
Iyar.
Knesset Chairman Reuven Rivlin, who recently commented that
the 16th Knesset had reached its end, agreed elections cannot
be held until the disengagement plan is carried out since the
Knesset could not mobilize a majority to support such a move.
In addition, he said, disbanding the Knesset now would leave
the disengagement plan to be executed without oversight or
control by the parliamentary system.
If the disengagement opponents thought there was a chance of
thwarting the plan through early elections—forget it.
The disengagement plan has already passed the point of no
return. On the other hand, if Sharon thinks after he finishes
clearing out Gaza he will have a government for another year
until the elections scheduled for the winter of
5767—forget it. At least that is the way thinks look
right now.
