The entire Likud Party is at a crossroads. If Sharon ever
resigns from the party following a defeat in the primaries at
some later date, one thing is certain: he won't go back to
the ranch. He will start a new party, bringing over several
Likud ministers and MKs as well as various figures from the
outside.
One ranking minister who would invariably join Sharon is Ehud
Olmert. He has already made clear that he would not remain in
the Likud under former finance minister, Binyamin
Netanyahu.
How the other Likud figures would act remains unknown. On one
hand they would be very loathe to see Netanyahu lead the
party and would have grave concerns the party would lose many
mandates. On the other hand the Likud is a longstanding party
with much tradition; constituents would not be quick to leave
for a new party whose future is wholly uncertain.
Fringe MKs and Sharon supporters such as Ruchama Avraham or
Eli Aflalo could definitely resign along with Sharon to try
their luck getting reelected on a new list. But ministers and
ranking figures such as Tzippi Livni, Gidon Ezra, Silvan
Shalom, Zeev Baum and Shaul Mofaz would have to think
carefully before making such a move.
There are many Likud MKs, both Sharon supporters and non-
supporters, who are concerned that under Netanyahu the Likud
would lose numerous mandates and perhaps even control of the
government. Nevertheless they would opt to remain in the
Likud because they are young and have to look out for their
long-term interests as well.
If Sharon starts a new party it would be a one-man party more
or less. As long as Sharon is capable of pulling the wagon,
both in a literal sense and in terms of public support, the
wagon will keep rolling along. All those considering
resigning from the Likud Party are aware of this and know as
soon as Sharon ends his career the new party will burst as
well.
Therefore only a handful of MKs would follow Sharon to a new
party. If Netanyahu wins, great. And if not they will prepare
for the war over the inheritance as if they had never
abandoned the Likud during its big rift.
