Despite all the talk about the disengagement plan, most
Knesset members, especially from Labor and Likud, are really
more concerned about post-disengagement. The government will
be dismantled, the elections will be advanced and they will
have to find a way to guarantee their places in the next
Knesset. In a word, primaries.
The primaries consist of party elections for both the
chairmanship and for the Knesset list. The most commotion is
taking place in the Labor Party, which is scheduled to hold
primaries for the party leadership five weeks from now. The
Likud is not sitting back on its laurels either, but is
honing its weapons.
Labor has five candidates for the party chairmanship, three
who have held the chairmanship in the past and two former
prime ministers. The five are: the current chairman Shimon
Peres, former Prime Minister Ehud Barak, Histadrut Chairman
Amir Peretz, Matan Vilnai and Binyamin Ben Eliezer.
Of course all of the candidates are convinced they can win
and are determined to fight it out to the finish rather than
withdraw after making a deal with another candidate.
Binyamin Ben Eliezer is considered the most likely to pull
out. According to all of the surveys Ben Eliezer is bringing
up the rear; rather than simply losing he would be better off
hooking up with someone who could give him something in the
future. Nobody will be surprised if he suddenly announces his
withdrawal and begins to help Ehud Barak get elected.
Ben Eliezer's organizing skills and field recruiters make him
a strong figure in the Labor Party. But his personality is
grey and the voters' desire to rejuvenate the party lowers
his chances. As the elections draw near the other candidates
will be more and more eager to win his support.
An all-out war is being waged within the Labor Party, most of
all against Ehud Barak, who is storming the party as if he
were still a general—just as he did seven years ago
when the Labor Party fell right into his hands like a piece
of fruit falling off the tree. Yet his big victory was
matched by an equally big defeat only a year-and-a-half
later. Easy come, easy go, and it is doubtful whether Barak
learned his lesson.
Barak is hard at work plowing the field. He definitely knows
how to work hard and his tireless staff has managed to
register thousands of Labor voters. As usual he is brimming
with confidence, but this will probably not be enough since
the name Barak still evokes residual feelings of aversion
among many Labor voters as well as other voters around the
country.
Barak's main rival is Amir Peretz, whose party, Am Echad,
fused with Labor. Barak and his staff did everything in their
power to prevent Peretz from running. The tones in the Labor
Party reached a high pitch during squabbles between the Barak
and Peretz camps. The wrangling included curses, smears and
insults the likes of which have not been heard for a long
time.
Laborites say Peretz is bringing back many constituents who
fled from the party, as well as figures such as former MKs
Chagai Merom, Uzi Baram and Luba Eliav. They say he is giving
the party exactly the shakedown it needs.
Do a majority of Labor voters share these sentiments? To find
out the answer we'll have to wait for the results of the
primaries. What is certain is that Peretz has introduced a
spirit of unrest in the party and Barak is breathing down his
neck.
Olmert's Battle for Survival
Things are also heating up in the Likud. Binyamin Netanyahu
is gathering power and strength from day to day, as well as
his share of enemies and rivals. Every figure on improved
economics and every plan for tax reductions helps Netanyahu.
Yet at the same time every day the lower classes continue to
suffocate and suffer, the more the former PM—who very
much wants to be the next PM—estranges himself from
them.
Each of Netanyahu's successes goads at Ehud Olmert, who knows
his whole future in the Likud hinges on whether Netanyahu
becomes the next party chairman. If not, it makes no
difference to him whether Shalom, Livnat or Mofaz win, but if
the party chair goes to Netanyahu, Olmert knows he won't even
be able to secure the very last spot on the Likud list.
In recent weeks Olmert has been waging a fierce battle
against Netanyahu, saying the Finance Ministry's power should
be curtailed and that he will do everything in his power to
help Sharon remain party chairman. And what will Olmert do if
Sharon does not run? The man is not 18 anymore. In fact he's
not 60 anymore, either.
Olmert is now fighting for his political survival. Like many
others he can already smell the primaries coming and knows
his standing in the Likud Center is nothing to write home
about.
His fight against Netanyahu is intended not only to defeat
him, but also to prove his total loyalty to Sharon to gain
the Sharon camp's favor. He knows he'll be needing it
soon.
