Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei's government will
collapse within six months, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon
predicted. Sharon made the comment during consultations with
his advisors on a major diplomatic speech that he plans to
deliver at the Herzliya Conference at the end of this week.
He claimed that the American administration shares this
assessment.
Sharon is spending the early part of this week on intensive
preparations for his speech at the Herzliya Conference. He
has been dropping hints about a major shift in his historical
stances. Several weeks ago he said that there may be some
need for unilateral moves on the part of Israel if there is
no progress with the Palestinians. He hinted that such moves
may even include moving Jewish settlements, although he said
nothing clearly. The expectation is that at the Conference he
will make his thinking clear.
Sharon also criticized Qurei for "doing nothing against
terrorism." Preparations for a Sharon-Qurei meeting are
currently on hold, and a meeting between the premiers' bureau
chiefs that was supposed to finalize arrangements for it has
been indefinitely postponed. "We are busy preparing the
Herzliya speech, and we don't have time this week," Sharon's
advisers said.
Sharon has told cabinet ministers and senior Labor Party
officials in recent days that over the next few months he
will determine whether it is possible to make progress with
Qurei on the road map peace plan. If this proves impossible,
Israel will embark on a series of unilateral actions,
including completion of the separation fence and a military
redeployment in the territories that will also entail
dismantling some isolated settlements. These measures are the
centerpiece of the program Sharon will reportedly present at
the Herzliya Conference.
Some of the premier's associates said that he is also
considering evacuating isolated settlements in the coming
months. Other associates, however, said that Sharon has no
intention of evacuating settlements now, both for fear of
destroying his coalition and for fear of international
criticism.
Sharon evidently does not expect the unilateral measures he
is proposing to disrupt his current coalition. To the
surprise of the senior Labor MKs with whom he met, he did not
propose that Labor join the government, and Transportation
Minister Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the right-wing National
Union party, left his meeting with Sharon convinced that he
has nothing to worry about for now. That suggests that he
will not evacuate settlements.
On Tuesday Education Minister Limor Livnat, who is considered
a member of the Likud's right flank, made her own proposal
for a final vision, saying that she would support "the
relocation of three or four settlements" if it did not appear
to reward Palestinian terror. According to her, such a step
should be accompanied by a formal annexation of those areas
that Israel wants to keep under any agreement, such as
Ma'aleh Adumim, Givat Ze'ev, Gush Etzion and the Jordan
Valley.
A senior government source said that annexation was not part
of Sharon's plan, "which includes only security measures, not
diplomatic ones." America is strongly opposed to any
unilateral steps with diplomatic significance.
Sharon has told various interlocutors recently that any final-
status agreement with the Palestinians would involve the
evacuation of the Gaza Strip settlements, even mentioning the
settlements of Netzarim and Morag by name.
Sharon also said that Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert "went
too far" with his proposal for a unilateral withdrawal from
most of the territories including Jerusalem.
