The battle for the throne between Finance Minister Binyamin
Netanyahu and Trade, Commerce and Industry Minister Ehud
Olmert is heating up. Last week's dramatic announcement that
prime ministerial elections could be held in Cheshvan 5767,
one year ahead of schedule, added to the tensions between the
two men who see themselves at the head of the Likud
after Sharon.
Netanyahu began to wrangle with Olmert when his ministry
decided to increase the price of bread. Olmert claimed the
Finance Ministry was notified of the move in advance. He said
he had proposed the Finance Ministry cancel the VAT on bread
(just as fruits and vegetables are exempt from VAT), thereby
eliminating the need for the price hike.
Developments in the affairs Sharon and his sons were involved
in also apparently heightened Netanyahu and Olmert's feeling
that a showdown between them is drawing near.
Sharon himself seems to sense the ring of the indictment
tightening around him. Otherwise it is hard to explain
Sharon's outburst of anger toward top police commanders when
he told them to stop whining about funding and get to
work.
Several events took place on that day:
a.) Reports that police investigators traveled to Caribbean
islands to investigate the money transfers in the Cyril Karen
case were publicized. Several Caribbean islands are known tax
shelters.
b.) The Tel Aviv District Court ordered Gilad Sharon to turn
over additional documents and tapes to police and to try to
obtain documents not in his possession, but which he has the
ability to obtain.
c.) Major General Moshe Mizrachi, head of the department of
police investigations, said outside figures interfered with
the investigation of the Sharon family.
Sharon is feeling the heat. The police are constantly leaking
information.
It appears elections will be held ahead of schedule, whether
because an indictment is issued against Sharon or because of
the laconic drafting of the law, which will shorten the term
of the present Knesset by one year.
According to legal experts the possibility of advancing the
election date is the result of a faux pas on the part of the
members of the Knesset Constitutional Committee at the time
the Government Foundation Law was amended and the Direct
Elections Law was cancelled.
Right now if Netanyahu does not make too many mistakes his
path to the Prime Minister's office seems guaranteed. Though
Olmert is making efforts here and there to gain the favor of
certain sectors--including the chareidi sector--his chances
are nil. To the Likud he is perceived as an irreparable
leftist and to the left he is simply not very popular.
Netanyahu may not be well-liked by the Left but he leads the
surveys among Likud voters, even among residents of
development towns and local authority workers, who perceive
him as a healer of the Israeli economy.
For a Stable Coalition
Coalition Chairman Gidon Saar denied expressing concern
during a meeting with Sharon over the future of the
coalition, but some say he is very worried about widening
cracks in the coalition. Recently the government was narrowly
saved from no-confidence votes by a margin of just one or two
votes.
The number of votes in support of the coalition shrank
following Sharon's plan to withdraw from Gaza. Now National
Religious Party, HaIchud HaLeumi and several Likud MKs are
regularly withholding their support for the government.
Insiders claim Sharon is unconcerned over keeping the
coalition intact. He is convinced its composition will keep
it from disintegrating very quickly since every party and MK
has reasons to stay put. For the most part Sharon is counting
on the bucket seats of the Volvo and the sunken leather
armchair of the minister's office to maintain their loyalty,
and on the fact the NRP and HaIchud HaLeumi are well aware
that the moment they resign, Shimon Peres and his party will
come galloping into the government within a matter of
hours.
Yet at the same time Sharon is handing out goodies to help
convince his coalition partners not to resign, even in light
of the possible withdrawal from Gaza. Last week, for example,
over NIS 90 million ($20 million) was transferred to the
settlements, funding the NRP and HaIchud HaLeumi can cast as
an achievement to help convince their constituents staying in
the coalition is worthwhile to save and nurture what
remains.
