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22 Adar II 5763 - March 26, 2003 | Mordecai Plaut, director Published Weekly
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NEWS
Israel on Alert for Iraqi Missile Attack
by Mordecai Plaut

Israel anxiously followed the news about the American struggle in Iraq to depose Saddam Hussein, as the first reports of casualties came in and Iraq showed no signs of collapsing in the face of the fierce American onslaught. Israel has not suffered any attacks from Iraq in the first few days of the war, and indeed Iraq has not shown that it still has any long-range missiles or other means to threaten Israel. Nonetheless all of Israel remained on high alert.

The United States is leading a coalition of 43 countries whose main goal is to depose Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. The Allies are: Afghanistan, Albania, Australia, Azerbaijan, Britain, Bulgaria, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Eritrea, Estonia, Ethiopia, Georgia, Honduras, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Japan, Kuwait, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Mongolia, Netherlands, Nicaragua, Palau, Panama, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Rwanda, Singapore, Slovakia, Solomon Islands, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, Uganda, United States, Uzbekistan.

A report on Monday quoted senior officials in Washington as saying that allied forces destroyed missile launchers in an area in western Iraq, the region from which any missiles aimed at Israel would have to be launched. However, the report did not say if they were SCUD missile launchers, a hazard to Israel, or other, short-range missile launchers which are the only kind permitted to Iraq and are not a hazard to Israel.

The Israeli Air Force patrolled the skies around the clock but on Sunday it reduced the frequency of those aerial patrols, as the American assault on Iraqi arms has reduced the threat of an airborne attack on Israel. In addition to Israeli aircraft in the skies, American fighters and bombers from the aircraft carrier the U.S.S. Roosevelt, which is stationed in the Mediterranean, may have passed over Israel on their way to missions over Iraq.

Despite the lower alert for air attacks, Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz said on Monday that the alert for an Iraqi missile attack will not be reduced in the next few days.

Brig.-Gen. Yosef Kupperwasser, head of the Intelligence Corps research and assessment branch, said no preparations for a missile launching have yet been spotted in Iraq, but US activity in western Iraq does not "guarantee an inability of the Iraqis to operate from the area."

Kuperwasser said that Iraq at this time has no intention of justifying the US-led campaign by attacking Israel with long- range Scuds. However, the current Iraqi strategy might change, inducing Saddam Hussein to try to attack Israel. The Iraqi strategy now is to defend itself and to be seen as the victim, he said. According to IDF intelligence there are no indications that the Iraqi regime and military are collapsing as a result of the US-led attack, he added.

Mofaz told the weekly Cabinet meeting that while the US campaign is proceeding as planned, it is too early to assess its status. The key, he said, will be breaking the Iraqi regime's main support in and around Baghdad.

Responding to the Iraqi claim that US is using Israeli munitions to bomb Baghdad, Mofaz answered that the fragments found were from decoy missiles Israel sells to the American air fleet. Called TALD, the air-launched missiles are engineered to draw enemy antiaircraft fire away from planes, or to "saturate" antiaircraft radars.

Israelis are being asked by the security authorities to carry gas masks wherever they go, but few Israelis are doing so. Military officials said the Israeli public was being overly complacent in not following the instructions closely.

Numerous cabinet ministers came to the weekly meeting without their masks, including prime minister Sharon himself, Education Minister Limor Livnat, Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, Minister-without-Portfolio Natan Sharansky, and Housing Minister Effi Eitam. Other ministers did bring their masks.

As for threats from Palestinians, Mofaz said there are "warnings," and security forces continue to detain suspects. IDF soldiers arrested 19 Palestinians Monday night in the West Bank, including a senior Tanzim activist believed to be responsible for lethal terror attacks on Israelis.

Mofaz said that popular support for Iraq on the Palestinian street remains widespread.

The cabinet also adopted a resolution put forward by Sharansky saying that the government of Israel is "following with concern" and "views with gravity" manifestations of antisemitism in Europe. The government called upon the world's leaders to do what is needed to prevent these incidents and to prosecute lawbreakers.

On Monday, the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee approved the IDF's request for 13,800 emergency call-up orders that were issued last week with the start of the operation in Iraq. Meanwhile 11,600 remain mobilized in special Air Force, Home Front Command, and rescue units.

Each day of mobilization costs the IDF over NIS 10 million. This is in addition to the hundreds of millions of shekels in costs when Israelis were instructed to open their gas mask kits.

A Home Front Command source confirmed that the opening of the masks cost "millions" since some of the equipment will need to be refreshed or replaced, and especially since many unsealed their oxygen canisters or tampered with other elements of the gas mask kit. The source noted that 96 percent of the population has been outfitted with updated kits. Home Front Command distributed 3.5 million kits since September, only a fraction of which were faulty. As of Sunday evening, there remain only about 100,000 without updated kits.

According to intelligence sources, launching a Scud is no simple matter. Even if the launcher is stored in an underground bunker or hanger, once moved it is easily detectable. Before launching a missile, a weather balloon must be sent up, which is also easily detectable. Finally the Scud's fuel must be warmed up prior to launch, which also reveals a launcher's position to sensitive satellites.

 

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