It is likely that there will soon be a prisoner swap whereby
the Iranian and Syrian-backed Hizbullah military organization
in Lebanon will exchange businessman and retired colonel
Elchanan Tannenbaum, who is reported to be alive, and the
bodies of three IDF soldiers. All four were captured alive
three years ago, but the soldiers have since been declared
dead by the IDF.
Persistent reports have indicated that an agreement will be
reached soon. Israel will almost certainly return 16 Lebanese
prisoners it holds, including Sheikh Abd al Karim Obeid,
Hizbullah's former leader in south Lebanon who was abducted
by IDF troops in 1989, and Mustafa Dirani another terrorist
leader abducted in 1994. Those last two were captured by
Israel in efforts to determine the fate of missing Israel Air
Force navigator Ron Arad who was captured after ejecting from
his plane over Lebanon in 1986.
If Obeid and Dirani are released without any information
about Arad, it indicates that the Israeli government believes
that there is little to be gained by holding out longer in
his case.
Press reports say that Hizbullah is demanding the release of
some Palestinians as well. According to a report in an Arab
newspaper, this includes Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti who is
currently on trial in Israel for terrorist activities. An
Israeli Minister denied that Barghouti will be released. It
does not seem likely, since he is now in the middle of
judicial proceedings.
Israel is examining the possibility of sending into temporary
or permanent exile any Palestinian prisoners released in a
prisoner exchange deal.
Maj. Gen. (res.) Ilan Biran, who is leading the negotiations
for Israel, recently returned from Germany where he had talks
with mediator Ernst Urlau, representing Chancellor Gerhard
Schroeder's office.
A hostage deal between Israel and Hizbullah will be completed
within a few days, other unnamed Israeli security sources
were quoted as saying Monday by Palestinian newspaper Al-
Quds, published in East Jerusalem.
But Israeli officials said that the Al-Quds report and
similar statements by Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan
Nasrallah were optimistic.
A Palestinian source closely associated with the German
mediator brokering the deal told The Associated Press on
Monday that Israel has agreed in principle to release about
400 Arab prisoners, including at least 200 Palestinians.
