As we go to press before Pesach, a number of stories are
developing but nothing definite has happened. This article is
intended to give a picture of the situation now, and some
speculation as to what is likely to happen.
War in Iraq
The US and its allies have made swift, steady progress in
Iraq. Already it is apparent that the government of Saddam
Hussein has lost any real control over the country. There is
no central authority on the Iraqi side coordinating
resistance against the Allied armies.
On the other hand, individual units of the army, still
numbering thousands of fighters, are resisting. In addition,
small concentrations of Saddam loyalists are taking
individual initiatives. The Iraqi government, through its
spokesman, is completely denying that America has achieved
any success.
America seems certain to take over Iraq. There is no real
resistance to its advances. On Monday British forces walked
into Basra, the second largest city in Iraq and they
encountered no resistance to their advance, though there were
some neighborhoods that they still do not control.
It seems increasingly unlikely that Iraq will launch any
weapons of mass destruction either at Allied armed forces or
at Israel. Reports are that America did find stocks of
chemical weapons, but they were not set up to be used in the
current conflict.
Now that America has won the war, the question is what it
will do in the peace. There are no leading candidates for
running Iraq waiting in the wings.
Israeli Economic Plan
The revolutionary economic plan proposed by the Finance
Ministry bureaucrats and Finance Minister Netanyahu is under
fire, mainly by the labor unions who are threatening a
general strike this week and more to come. They are not
fighting for the chareidi community, which is being seriously
and systematically assaulted by targeted cuts, but for their
own interests.
Chances are that some sort of agreement will be reached,
since it is clear to everyone that big cutbacks in government
spending are essential at this time. Many of the
revolutionary concepts in the Finance Ministry's plans have
not been challenged.
However, no one is standing up for the Torah community.
According to the calculations of Rabbi Moshe Gafni, support
for Torah learning will be cut by 87 percent (see separate
article).
Palestinian Authority
There was chance for real change in the PA with the public
announcement of the appointment of Abu Mazen as prime
minister. However a report in Ha'aretz claims that Abu
Mazen may withdraw because it is becoming clear that Yasser
Arafat will remain firmly in control.
After his appointment, Abu Mazen spread the word he wanted to
appoint a government of technocrats that would lead to real
change in the PA. But reality may have overruled him.
Abu Mazen's travels in the West Bank and Gaza revealed to him
a gloomy picture of what is going on in the PA-controlled
areas. The security forces are operating as private militias
with criminal characteristics, the administration is corrupt,
and personal corruption of several leading officials
"astonished" him, say sources close to the prime minister-
designate.
Apparently what most deters him is a series of steps Arafat
has taken that have made the PA chairman's intentions clear,
that he has no intention of giving up control.
The European Road Map
The latest date for the publication of the European-American
plan for settling the conflict in Israel, known as the road
map, is upon the setting up of Abu Mazen's new government for
the PA. The Europeans are anxious to publish the plan and to
begin its implementation. Israel has made known its view that
it is not happy with the plan, but it has not rejected it.
The US has said that it is committed to it, but it does not
seem eager to publish it.
SARS
A mysterious virus that causes a respiratory disease had its
origin in China last fall. However China did not inform world
health authorities until February by which time it had
spread. There is no known cure for the disease now known as
SARS and it can be fatal in 3 to 4 percent of the cases,
mostly people who are especially weak. Most of the cases are
in China and Hong Kong. Now that authorities are aware of the
problem they move quickly to quarantine anyone suspected of
carrying the disease.
In the meantime, worry about the disease has disrupted
business and travel all over the Far East. No one is prepared
to say at this point if there will be a wider outbreak or
not.
The Month of Geulah
Jews all over the world prepared intensively for the upcoming
Pesach holy days, ridding their surroundings of chometz and
praying for deliverance from their short term problems as
well as for final deliverance and the Geulah
Sheleimoh!
