The only thing that is clear from the report published by the
State Prosecutor's Office and the General Security Services
about the relationship between successful suicide bombings
and the peace process is that neither the "Peace with
Security" proposed by the Likud, nor the "Peace Now"
advocated by the Left is a miracle solution -- the situation
is just too complex.
The report points to the fact that the worst terrorist
attacks took place in the early years of the peace process
when it looked as if things were proceeding very quickly.
"These horrendous attacks are, ironically, a direct result of
the advances in the peace process that terrorist
organizations hope to stop," said the report, but the attacks
fell off recently as it became apparent that the process is
stalled.
The numbers are tragic, if silent. In 1996 a total of 63 were
murdered in 121 attacks; in 1997 a total of 29 were murdered
in 101 attacks; in 1998 a total of 11 were murdered in 70
attacks. The injuries were 273, 414 and 153 in the respective
years.
The report argues that the crucial factor is the motivation
of the terror groups to carry out successful attacks. It
notes that the successful efforts of the Israeli security
services, with siyata diShmaya, was an "important
factor," but maintains that the terror groups' lack of
incentive was far more important.
This is debatable. Though murderous lowlifes remain at large
in the Palestinian Authority's areas -- and even in positions
of responsibility in the Palestinian Authority -- those who
were eliminated were the most active murderers, and were
responsible for the planning and execution of the most
devastating attacks. Recent attacks have been the work of
obviously less competent murderers, and it may be that the
terror groups have not been able to replace those eliminated.
All of those wanted in connection with the devastating
suicide attacks either blew themselves up or were killed or
captured, except for one.
The report does indicate that many who criticize Prime
Minister Netanyahu for the danger he is causing to the State
of Israel by his failure to move ahead faster in agreements
with the Palestinians are wrong, since it is that very lack
of progress that is said to have lessened the real danger
from terror.
Another factor that was not mentioned in the report, and that
was probably important )though its contribution is difficult
to gauge(, is the current government's difference in attitude
compared to the previous one. The previous government used to
say that the victims of terror attacks were "sacrifices for
peace," accepting them as a necessary "cost" of developing a
relationship with the Palestinians and saying very clearly
that they did not affect their conduct of the negotiations
with the Palestinians. The current government declared very
firmly, at every opportunity, that terror is not tolerable,
and reacted to attacks by refusing to continue talking for a
period. It refused to conduct business as usual after
murders, and broadcast its pain. The effects of these
contrasting approaches are difficult to trace, but they
cannot be dismissed.
The conclusion is that it is hard to know what happened in
the past, let alone to predict what will be effective in the
future. Neither Right nor Left knows for sure which policy
will put an end to bloodshed in our area. We know that the
only real answer is to look upwards: that "I will bring peace
to the land" is the result of our going in Hashem's ways.
